This analysis was conducted on the basis of Ukraine’s 2021 updated nationally determined contribution and before the brutal and unwarranted Russian military invasion in the country.
We are publishing it to show that the Ukrainian government had plans in place to facilitate a transition to a low carbon economy.
Once peace is restored, in addition to very large reconstruction and humanitarian needs, Ukraine will need international support to build a climate-resilient society and economy in line with the Paris Agreement.
Responsible for a little over a tenth of Ukraine’s total GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF), the transport sector has seen emissions rise each year since 2015. Emissions would be allowed to rise to 2030 under the 64% reduction target set in its updated NDC, as emissions in 2017 were already 69% below 1990 levels. A slight increase to 66% below 1990 levels would place it at the edge of the range of illustrative 1.5°C pathways (66-76%).
Under current policies the share of electric vehicles in the national car fleet would reach just 3% by 2030, compared to the 50% target in Ukraine’s National Transport Strategy. Public EV charging points increased by 57% between 2019-20 to reach a total of 8500. A target of increasing the use of alternative fuels in transport to 50% by 2030 is also part of the strategy as well as an increase in national access to bus transport to 90% of administrative units.
In general, the strategy is lacking in detail, with many targets not quantified, including the “development of cycling infrastructure”, “allocation of separate lanes for public transport”, and “increase the share of public transport”. Concurrently, the strategy targets a development of domestic air transport, with an aim to make services more affordable. This is counter to achieving a decarbonisation of the transport sector.