Emissions from transport in Türkiye have risen almost threefold from about 28 MtCO₂e in 1990 to about 84 MtCO₂e in 2019. Oil accounts for a 99% share of the sector’s energy mix, with the remaining 1% covered by electricity.

To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Türkiye would need to reduce its transport CO₂ emissions by 46%–66% by 2030, from 2019 levels, and reach close to zero emissions by 2050. The pathways analysed here show that the reduction will be driven by increasing the share of electricity in the sector’s energy mix to 4%–18% by 2030 and 36%–49% by 2050, with biofuels playing a small role.

Türkiye’s 2053 Transport and Logistics Master Plan includes investments worth about USD 200 million into the expansion of the existing transport infrastructure, with the largest amount to be spent on rail infrastructure.¹¹ The government’s target for a modal shift includes increasing the share of rail in passenger transport from less than 1% in 2019 to over 6% in 2053 and in domestic freight transport from 3% in 2019 to almost 22% in 2053.

However, Türkiye has not yet fixed a date for the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles, nor has the government established targets for the electrification of road transport. Without concrete electrification targets, Türkiye risks locking in a carbon intensive pathway in the transport sector.

¹ Government of Turkey. On bi̇ri̇nci̇ kalkinma plani (2019-2023) (11th Development Plan (2019-2023)). 2019.

² Turkish Statistical Institute. Turkish Greenhouse gas inventory report 1990–2018. 2020.

³ Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Turkey Energy Strategy 2019-2023. 2019.

⁴ Global Energy Monitor. Global Coal Plant Tracker Database (July). Global Energy Monitor. 2020.

⁵ Climate Transparency. Turkey – Climate Transparency Report 2020. Climate Transparency Report. 2020.

⁶ Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Türkiye Ulusal Enerji Planı [Türkiye National Energy Plan]. 2022. Preprint at enerji.gov.tr//Media/Dizin/EIGM/tr/Raporlar/TUEP/T%C3%BCrkiye_Ulusal_Enerji_Plan%C4%B1.pdf

⁷ Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. Turkey’s Fourth Biennial Report. 2019.

⁸ Kurum, M. Türkiye – High-level Segment Statement COP 27. UNFCCC. 2022. Preprint at unfccc-events.azureedge.net/COP27_90500/agenda

⁹ Government of Turkey. National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) 2017-2023. 2017.

¹⁰ Government of Turkey. Turkey. 2022 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. 2022.

¹¹ Government of Turkey. Transport and Logistic Master Plan 2053. 2020.

¹² While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

¹³ LULUCF projections by 2030 are based on a ten-year average of the latest available historical LULUCF emissions from Türkiye assessed by the Climate Action Tracker.