Emissions from transport in Türkiye have risen almost threefold from about 28 MtCO₂e in 1990 to about 84 MtCO₂e in 2019. Oil accounts for a 99% share of the sector’s energy mix, with the remaining 1% covered by electricity.
To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Türkiye would need to reduce its transport CO₂ emissions by 46%–66% by 2030, from 2019 levels, and reach close to zero emissions by 2050. The pathways analysed here show that the reduction will be driven by increasing the share of electricity in the sector’s energy mix to 4%–18% by 2030 and 36%–49% by 2050, with biofuels playing a small role.
Türkiye’s 2053 Transport and Logistics Master Plan includes investments worth about USD 200 million into the expansion of the existing transport infrastructure, with the largest amount to be spent on rail infrastructure. The government’s target for a modal shift includes increasing the share of rail in passenger transport from less than 1% in 2019 to over 6% in 2053 and in domestic freight transport from 3% in 2019 to almost 22% in 2053.
However, Türkiye has not yet fixed a date for the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles, nor has the government established targets for the electrification of road transport. Without concrete electrification targets, Türkiye risks locking in a carbon intensive pathway in the transport sector.