Energy related emissions in the Turkish industrial sector increased by 115% between 1990 and 2019, from 38 MtCO₂e to about 83 MtCO₂e. The share of coal in the sector’s energy mix declined from 41% to 24%, and the share of electricity and heat increased from 21% to 31% and 0.1% to 4%, respectively. However, at the same time, the share of fossil gas increased dramatically from 4% to 30%.

A full decarbonisation of Türkiye’s industrial sector would be possible between 2048 and 2050 if the sector achieved a 59%–71% electrification by 2040, and 67%–79% by 2050.

Emissions from industrial processes nearly tripled from 23 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 66.8 MtCO₂e in 2020.10 To align with 1.5°C pathways, process-related emissions would need to fall from their current level of about 67 MtCO₂e to at most 52 MtCO₂e in 2030 and 35 MtCO₂e in 2050.

The National Energy Efficiency Action Plan sets a target for reducing energy intensity of industrial processes by 10% by 2023. It also proposes low interest loans to increase energy efficiency as well as increasing cogeneration capabilities at industrial sites with heat requirements exceeding 20 MW.⁹

¹ Government of Turkey. On bi̇ri̇nci̇ kalkinma plani (2019-2023) (11th Development Plan (2019-2023)). 2019.

² Turkish Statistical Institute. Turkish Greenhouse gas inventory report 1990–2018. 2020.

³ Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Turkey Energy Strategy 2019-2023. 2019.

⁴ Global Energy Monitor. Global Coal Plant Tracker Database (July). Global Energy Monitor. 2020.

⁵ Climate Transparency. Turkey – Climate Transparency Report 2020. Climate Transparency Report. 2020.

⁶ Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Türkiye Ulusal Enerji Planı [Türkiye National Energy Plan]. 2022. Preprint at enerji.gov.tr//Media/Dizin/EIGM/tr/Raporlar/TUEP/T%C3%BCrkiye_Ulusal_Enerji_Plan%C4%B1.pdf

⁷ Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. Turkey’s Fourth Biennial Report. 2019.

⁸ Kurum, M. Türkiye – High-level Segment Statement COP 27. UNFCCC. 2022. Preprint at unfccc-events.azureedge.net/COP27_90500/agenda

⁹ Government of Turkey. National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) 2017-2023. 2017.

¹⁰ Government of Turkey. Turkey. 2022 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. 2022.

¹¹ Government of Turkey. Transport and Logistic Master Plan 2053. 2020.

¹² While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

¹³ LULUCF projections by 2030 are based on a ten-year average of the latest available historical LULUCF emissions from Türkiye assessed by the Climate Action Tracker.