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Türkiye Sectors

What is Türkiyeʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions in the buildings sector in Türkiye increased from about 23 MtCO₂e in 1990 to 54 MtCO₂e in 2016, but their share of total emissions has remained stable at around 12%. Share of electricity in the sector’s power mix increased from 9% in 1990 to 32% in 2019, but at the same time, the share of fossil fuels grew from approximately 42% to about 59%. The growth was mostly driven by an increased use of fossil gas which accounted for 75% of fossil fuels in the sector’s energy mix in 2019.

All 1.5°C aligned pathways analysed here foresee an increasing role for electrification, with the share of electricity rising to 55–60% by 2030 and 84–89% by 2050. To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Türkiye would need to decrease direct CO₂ emissions in the buildings sector to below 21 MtCO₂ by 2030 and fully decarbonise the sector by mid-2040s.

Türkiye’s National Energy Efficiency Action Plan proposes to introduce standards for newly constructed public and private buildings. Such standards would for example require that all new buildings have at a minimum an Energy Performance Certificate “B”. Another proposal in the plan would mandate new buildings to be “nearly zero energy buildings”.9 Türkiye has set several short-term goals for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings, such as a 15% reduction in energy use by 2023. However, the goals refer primarily to public buildings; Türkiye has no long-term policies mandating the refurbishment of existing, privately-owned housing stock.

1 Government of Turkey. On bi̇ri̇nci̇ kalkinma plani (2019-2023) (11th Development Plan (2019-2023)). 2019.

2 Turkish Statistical Institute. Turkish Greenhouse gas inventory report 1990–2018. 2020.

3 Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Turkey Energy Strategy 2019-2023. 2019.

4 Global Energy Monitor. Global Coal Plant Tracker Database (July). Global Energy Monitor. 2020.

5 Climate Transparency. Turkey – Climate Transparency Report 2020. Climate Transparency Report. 2020.

6 Turkish Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Türkiye Ulusal Enerji Planı [Türkiye National Energy Plan]. 2022. Preprint at enerji.gov.tr//Media/Dizin/EIGM/tr/Raporlar/TUEP/T%C3%BCrkiye_Ulusal_Enerji_Plan%C4%B1.pdf

7 Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. Turkey’s Fourth Biennial Report. 2019.

8 Kurum, M. Türkiye – High-level Segment Statement COP 27. UNFCCC. 2022. Preprint at unfccc-events.azureedge.net/COP27_90500/agenda

9 Government of Turkey. National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) 2017-2023. 2017.

10 Government of Turkey. Turkey. 2022 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. 2022.

11 Government of Turkey. Transport and Logistic Master Plan 2053. 2020.

12 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

13 LULUCF projections by 2030 are based on a ten-year average of the latest available historical LULUCF emissions from Türkiye assessed by the Climate Action Tracker.

Türkiyeʼs energy mix in the buildings sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
Low energy demand
20192030204020501 0001 500
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biomass
  • Biogas
  • Biofuel
  • Electricity
  • Heat
  • Hydrogen

Türkiyeʼs buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
10203040506019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand

1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Türkiye

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised buildings sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
57
19 to 21
4 to 7
0 to 2
2037 to 2045
Relative to reference year in %
−66 to −64%
−93 to −88%
−99 to −97%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
32
55 to 60
72 to 75
84 to 89
Share of heat
Percent
5
4 to 6
7 to 11
7 to 13
Share of hydrogen
Percent
0
0 to 2
0 to 2
0 to 3

Footnotes