Power sector in 2030
Switzerland’s uniquely low carbon power sector relies heavily on nuclear and hydropower, which accounted for over 91% of total generation in 2019, with no coal and only very limited natural gas generation (1%).1 A continuation of historically high recent carbon prices in the EU emissions trading scheme – which Switzerland joined in 2020 – has the potential to incentivise gas phase out. Aligning with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal would require government policy to ensure phase out by 2025.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Phasing out of Switzerland’s limited natural gas electricity generation by 2025 would ensure the Swiss power sector aligns with Paris Agreement compatible pathways. Ensuring the emissions from bioenergy in the power sector are captured and stored would provide a source of negative emissions that could help to offset harder to abate emissions from other sectors like agriculture and industrial processes.
1 IEA. World Energy Balances 2020 Edition. (2020).
2 Government of Switzerland. Switzerland. 2020 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table.
3 Climate Action Tracker. Switzerland – November 2020 Update.
4 Swiss Federal Office of Energy. CO2 emission regulations for new cars and light commercial vehicles.
5 Bundesamt für Energie. Energieverbrauch und Energieeffizienz der neuen Personenwagen und leichten Nutzfahrzeuge 2019. (2020).
6 Bundesamt für Energie. Faktenblatt Vollzug der CO2-Emissionsvorschriften für Personenwagen 2017 Neuzugelassene Personenwagen und ihre CO2-Emissionen. (2018).
7 Bundesamt für Energie & Bundesamt für Strassen. Roadmap Elektromobilität 2022. (2018).
8 ACEA. Fuel types of new cars: diesel -23.6%, electric +33.1% in fourth quarter of 2018 | ACEA – European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.
9 ACEA. Fuel types of new cars: diesel -17.9%, petrol +3.3%, electric +40.0% in first quarter of 2019 | ACEA – European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association.
10 ICAP. Swiss ETS. (2020).
11 Schweizer Parlament. Bundesgesetz über die Verminderung von Treibhausgasemissionen (CO2-Gesetz). (2020).
12 Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft. Switzerland’s Fourth Biennial Report under the UNFCCC. (2020).
13 der Bundesrat. Verordnung vom 30. November 2012 über die Reduktion der CO2 Emissionen. (2012).
14 Schweizer Parlament. Bundesgesetz über die Verminderung von Treibhausgasemissionen (CO2-Gesetz).
15 Swiss Confederation. Revision of the CO2 law: Explanatory report on the consultation draft. (2021).
16 Schweizerische Eidgenossenschaft. Switzerland’s Fourth Biennial Report under the UNFCCC.(2020).
17 ICAP. ICAP Allowance Price Explorer. (2022).
18 European Alternative Fuels Observatory. Switzerland – Vehicles and fleet. (2022).
19 Kuramochi, T. et al. Ten key short-term sectoral benchmarks to limit warming to 1.5°C. Clim. Policy (2017).
20 Some pathways include sinks based on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
21 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
Switzerlandʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Renewables incl. biomass
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
Switzerlandʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- 100%RE
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Switzerland
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 20 | 0 | −10 | −20 to −10 | 2024 to 2025 |
Relative to reference year in % | −95 to −92% | −153 to −141% | −230 to −199% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2019 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 61 | 83 to 97 | 93 to 99 | 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Switzerlandʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Switzerland to be on the order of USD 1 to 4 billion by 2030 and 2 to 5 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.