Total final energy consumption of the industry sector has steadily increased from a 1993 low of 698,108 TJ to 1,001,498 TJ in 2019, largely driven by the overall performance of the economy.21,23 However, the emissions picture has been mixed, with vacillations driven by global economic pressures, electricity supply constraints, changes in product output, a growing service sector and slow annual GDP growth.23,24 Since 2017, in particular, fuel combustion emissions across all sectors have been decreasing due in part to the slowing economy (pre- and during COVID).8,23,25,26
Process emissions from the Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) sector contributed on average, 7% of total national emissions (excl. LULUCF) between 2000 and 2017.24 The main drivers of emissions in the IPPU sector are the metal industries – principally the production of iron, steel and ferroalloys – and the mineral industries.23 More efficient energy and material use, and minimising waste, will be key to cutting these emissions, but the sector remains amongst the hardest to decarbonise.
To decarbonise the industrial sector, the share of electricity (powered by renewable energy) used in the sector would need to increase from 38% in 2019, to approximately 49% by 2030 and to between 69 to 82% by 2050. When combined with hydrogen and biomass, electrification penetration should reach up to 95% by 2050.
South Africa’s Post-2015 Energy Efficiency Strategy sets sectoral energy intensity improvement of 15% for industry and mining sectors by 2030, and aims to achieve this by implementing minimum energy performance standards (MEPS), amongst others.
28 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
South Africaʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
02040608010012019902010203020502070
Historical emissions
SSP1 High CDR reliance
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Low energy demand
South Africaʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
01020304019902010203020502070
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
SSP1 High CDR reliance
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for South Africa