For Serbia to embark on a 1.5°C compatible pathway, it would need to cut GHG emissions by between 44–54% by 2030 below 2010 levels excluding LULUCF. That is significantly more than the government’s NDC target of 13.2%, also outlined in its Draft Climate Strategy and Action Plan., The target translates to an absolute level of about 54 MtCO₂/yr by 2030 excluding LULUCF, and about 48 MtCO₂/yr including LULUCF.
Long term pathway
To align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Serbia would need to reduce its GHG emissions between 85–93% (4–10 MtCO₂e/yr) by 2050 compared to 2010 levels excluding LULUCF. Serbia’s LULUCF sector absorbed about 6 MtCO₂e/yr in 20103. The remaining emissions will have to be balanced through carbon dioxide removal approaches, either through strengthening land sinks or deploying carbon removal technologies. The latter are not currently available at scale and require high up-front investments. Three out of four of the scenarios analysed here suggest that the agricultural sector becomes the biggest emitter in Serbia by 2050.
The government’s 55% emissions reduction commitment for mid-century as outlined in the Climate Strategy and Action Plan exceeds the Paris Agreement compatible pathways by between 17 and 21 MtCO₂e/yr.
Electricity generation is the main source of emissions in Serbia, and therefore the power sector’s decarbonisation will drive the biggest GHG emissions reductions. Serbia has not set out a legally binding phase-out date for coal. However, the government’s draft National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) expects fossil fuel power generation to be completely phased out of the electricity system by 2050, with coal power kept on standby as additional capacity.