Transport energy demand in Saudi Arabia has increased almost threefold between 1990 and 2019. In 2017, the transport sector accounted for 19% of total emissions in Saudi Arabia. The transport sector is supplied 100% by oil, with no market for electric vehicles (EVs) or liquid biofuels as of current date.^4,17

In 2018, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund had invested USD 1 billion in a US-based EV manufacturer and signed an agreement to install EV charging stations in the country.¹⁸ While Saudi Arabia does not have an absolute emissions reduction target for the transport sector, it aims to implement various initiatives to improve energy efficiency across energy sectors including transport led by the Saudi Energy Efficiency Centre. The initiatives include improving fleet fuel economy, phasing out inefficient used light-duty vehicles, and implementing an aerodynamic regulation for heavy-duty vehicles.¹ Currently, there are several metro projects underway in Saudi Arabia including the USD 27 billion Riyadh Metro Project, which would contribute to a modal shift towards public transport in the country.¹⁹

To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, direct CO₂ emissions of the transport sector in Saudi Arabia would need to decline from 136 MtCO₂/yr in 2019 to 57–70 MtCO₂/yr by 2030, and 8–29 MtCO₂/yr by 2050. The country should also reduce its reliance on oil products and increase the share of electricity in the transport sector to 2–11% by 2030 and 43–60% by 2050. Liquid biofuels and hydrogen are some of the levers to decarbonise heavy-duty vehicles such as freight transport and public vehicles. Under 1.5°C compatible pathways, the share of liquid biofuels and hydrogen reaches 11–29% and 27–57% by 2050, respectively.

¹ Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 Submission to UNFCCC. (2021).

² Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker (2022).

³ BBC News. Saudi Arabia commits to net zero emissions by 2060. (2021).

⁴ International Energy Agency. Energy data and statistics. (2021).

⁵ Alnatheer, O. The potential contribution of renewable energy to electricity supply in Saudi Arabia. Energy Policy 33, 2298–2312 (2005).

⁶ BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. (2021).

⁷ KPMG. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Budget Report A review of the Saudi Arabia 2020 budget and recent economic developments (2019).

⁸ IRENA. Renewable Energy Statistics 2021. (2021).

⁹ General Authority for Statistics. Indicators of Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia 2018. (2018).

¹⁰ Recharge News. We will be pioneering’: Saudi Arabia reveals 50% renewables goal by 2030, but is that realistic? (2021).

¹¹ Climate Action Tracker. Country Analysis: Saudi Arabia September 2020 Update. (2020).

¹² Balkan Green Energy News. Saudi Arabia to add 3.7 GW in solar power, achieves world’s lowest price. (2021).

¹³ Government of Saudi Arabia. The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia under the UNFCCC. (2015).

¹⁴ Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report 2022 | Climate Transparency. (2022).

¹⁵ Bloomberg Green. Saudi Arabia to use 110 billion gas project for blue hydrogen. (2021).

¹⁶ TNO. 15 things you need to know about hydrogen. (2021).

¹⁷ Climate Transparency. Country Profile: Saudi Arabia. (2021).

¹⁸ Utilities Middle East. Saudi Arabia gets first EV charging stations. (2019).

¹⁹ Rose, M. Saudi Arabia to launch partial operation of Riyadh Metro by September 2021. Urban Transport News (2021).
fn20. In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

²¹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

²² The Low CDR Reliance (AIM/CGE SSP-1) scenario shows an oil share of 21% in power mix in 2050 after peaking in 2030. Low Energy Demand scenario (MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM) project the oil share to be 1.7% in 2050. Rest of the scenarios project oil to be phased out from the Saudi power mix by 2050.