In 2017, energy-related industry emissions accounted for 21% of total emissions in Saudi Arabia, the second biggest share after the power sector. Industrial process-related emissions accounted for 9% of total emissions. Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of oil. In 2020, Saudi Arabia accounted for nearly 13% of global oil production, next only to the USA.⁶ Saudi Arabia is also one of the largest producers of fossil gas in the world accounting for approximately 3% of global production in 2020.⁶ Both industrial energy and process-related emissions have increased more than fivefold in Saudi Arabia between 1990 and 2017.

To be compatible with 1.5°C pathway, energy-related CO₂ emissions in Saudi Arabia would need to decline from 117 MtCO₂ in 2019 to 52–57 MtCO₂/yr in 2030 (51–56% below 2019 levels) and to 15–17 MtCO₂/yr in 2050 (85–88% below 2019 levels). The share of electricity in the industry energy mix should increase from 10% in 2019 to 27–46% by 2050. Besides direct electrification, energy efficiency improvements, the use of green hydrogen, and curbing fugitive emissions could be key levers to decarbonise the industry sector in Saudi Arabia.

In October 2021, Saudi Arabia announced its commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2060.³ The government plans to use one of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, Jafurah field, to produce large-scale blue hydrogen and utilise carbon sequestration technologies to achieve its net zero target.¹⁵ However, blue hydrogen is highly emissions intensive,¹⁶ and Saudi Arabia still intends to produce oil for decades to come. Such plans contradict the government’s commitment to net zero emissions.³

¹ Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 Submission to UNFCCC. (2021).

² Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker (2022).

³ BBC News. Saudi Arabia commits to net zero emissions by 2060. (2021).

⁴ International Energy Agency. Energy data and statistics. (2021).

⁵ Alnatheer, O. The potential contribution of renewable energy to electricity supply in Saudi Arabia. Energy Policy 33, 2298–2312 (2005).

⁶ BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. (2021).

⁷ KPMG. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Budget Report A review of the Saudi Arabia 2020 budget and recent economic developments (2019). Arabia2020BudgetReport.pdf

⁸ IRENA. Renewable Energy Statistics 2021. (2021).

⁹ General Authority for Statistics. Indicators of Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia 2018. (2018).

¹⁰ Recharge News. We will be pioneering’: Saudi Arabia reveals 50% renewables goal by 2030, but is that realistic? (2021).

¹¹ Climate Action Tracker. Country Analysis: Saudi Arabia September 2020 Update. (2020).

¹² Balkan Green Energy News. Saudi Arabia to add 3.7 GW in solar power, achieves world’s lowest price. (2021).

¹³ Government of Saudi Arabia. The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia under the UNFCCC. (2015).

¹⁴ Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report 2022 | Climate Transparency. (2022).

¹⁵ Bloomberg Green. Saudi Arabia to use 110 billion gas project for blue hydrogen. (2021).

¹⁶ TNO. 15 things you need to know about hydrogen. (2021).

¹⁷ Climate Transparency. Country Profile: Saudi Arabia. (2021).

¹⁸ Utilities Middle East. Saudi Arabia gets first EV charging stations. (2019).

¹⁹ Rose, M. Saudi Arabia to launch partial operation of Riyadh Metro by September 2021. Urban Transport News (2021).
fn20. In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

²¹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

²² The Low CDR Reliance (AIM/CGE SSP-1) scenario shows an oil share of 21% in power mix in 2050 after peaking in 2030. Low Energy Demand scenario (MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM) project the oil share to be 1.7% in 2050. Rest of the scenarios project oil to be phased out from the Saudi power mix by 2050.