Energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings increased fivefold in Saudi Arabia between 1990 and 2019.4 The share of electricity in the buildings sector has been growing, and accounted for nearly 92% of total energy demand in 2019. The rest of the energy demand was met by oil with negligible contribution from biomass.4 In 2017, the buildings sector accounted for only 1% of total emissions in Saudi Arabia. Energy-related carbon emissions from the buildings sector have grown steadily in the past three decades while the emissions intensity has declined more sharply.
1.5°C compatible pathways show the buildings sector decarbonising between 2020 and 2034. Analysed pathways show the share of electricity in the sector increasing from 92% in 2019 to 98–99% in 2050.
In its 2021 NDC submission, Saudi Arabia states its ambition to incentivise energy efficiency projects in government buildings, and private sector investment in energy efficiency services via the National Energy Services Company (Tarshid). The plan will also include initiatives to improve energy efficiency in domestic buildings for appliances and air-conditioning units. The government plans to retrofit the entire pool of public and government assets and facilities including 2 million street lights, 110,000 government buildings, 35,000 public schools, 100,000 mosques, and 2500 hospitals and clinics.1
1 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 Submission to UNFCCC. (2021).
21 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
22 The Low CDR Reliance (AIM/CGESSP-1) scenario shows an oil share of 21% in power mix in 2050 after peaking in 2030. Low Energy Demand scenario (MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM) project the oil share to be 1.7% in 2050. Rest of the scenarios project oil to be phased out from the Saudi power mix by 2050.
Saudi Arabiaʼs buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
123456719902010203020502070
Historical emissions
SSP1 High CDR reliance
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Saudi Arabia