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Saudi Arabia Sectors

What is Saudi Arabiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

How to citeLast update: December 2022

Energy consumption in residential and commercial buildings increased fivefold in Saudi Arabia between 1990 and 2019.4 The share of electricity in the buildings sector has been growing, and accounted for nearly 92% of total energy demand in 2019. The rest of the energy demand was met by oil with negligible contribution from biomass.4 In 2017, the buildings sector accounted for only 1% of total emissions in Saudi Arabia. Energy-related carbon emissions from the buildings sector have grown steadily in the past three decades while the emissions intensity has declined more sharply.

1.5°C compatible pathways show the buildings sector decarbonising between 2020 and 2034. Analysed pathways show the share of electricity in the sector increasing from 92% in 2019 to 98–99% in 2050.

In its 2021 NDC submission, Saudi Arabia states its ambition to incentivise energy efficiency projects in government buildings, and private sector investment in energy efficiency services via the National Energy Services Company (Tarshid). The plan will also include initiatives to improve energy efficiency in domestic buildings for appliances and air-conditioning units. The government plans to retrofit the entire pool of public and government assets and facilities including 2 million street lights, 110,000 government buildings, 35,000 public schools, 100,000 mosques, and 2500 hospitals and clinics.1

1 Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Updated First Nationally Determined Contribution 2021 Submission to UNFCCC. (2021).

2 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker. Climate Action Tracker (2022).

3 BBC News. Saudi Arabia commits to net zero emissions by 2060. (2021).

4 International Energy Agency. Energy data and statistics. (2021).

5 Alnatheer, O. The potential contribution of renewable energy to electricity supply in Saudi Arabia. Energy Policy 33, 2298–2312 (2005).

6 BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2021. (2021).

7 KPMG. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Budget Report A review of the Saudi Arabia 2020 budget and recent economic developments (2019).

8 IRENA. Renewable Energy Statistics 2021. (2021).

9 General Authority for Statistics. Indicators of Renewable Energy in Saudi Arabia 2018. (2018).

10 Recharge News. We will be pioneering’: Saudi Arabia reveals 50% renewables goal by 2030, but is that realistic? (2021).

11 Climate Action Tracker. Country Analysis: Saudi Arabia September 2020 Update. (2020).

12 Balkan Green Energy News. Saudi Arabia to add 3.7 GW in solar power, achieves world’s lowest price. (2021).

13 Government of Saudi Arabia. The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia under the UNFCCC. (2015).

14 Climate Transparency. Climate Transparency Report 2022 | Climate Transparency. (2022).

15 Bloomberg Green. Saudi Arabia to use 110 billion gas project for blue hydrogen. (2021).

16 TNO. 15 things you need to know about hydrogen. (2021).

17 Climate Transparency. Country Profile: Saudi Arabia. (2021).

18 Utilities Middle East. Saudi Arabia gets first EV charging stations. (2019).

19 Rose, M. Saudi Arabia to launch partial operation of Riyadh Metro by September 2021. Urban Transport News (2021).
fn20. In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

21 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

22 The Low CDR Reliance (AIM/CGE SSP-1) scenario shows an oil share of 21% in power mix in 2050 after peaking in 2030. Low Energy Demand scenario (MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM) project the oil share to be 1.7% in 2050. Rest of the scenarios project oil to be phased out from the Saudi power mix by 2050.

Saudi Arabiaʼs energy mix in the buildings sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
Low energy demand
20192030204020501 0001 500
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Biomass
  • Hydrogen
  • Electricity
  • Heat

Saudi Arabiaʼs buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
123456719902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand

1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Saudi Arabia

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised buildings sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
5
2 to 5
0 to 2
0 to 1
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
92
90 to 96
97 to 98
98 to 99
Share of heat
Percent
0
0
0 to 1
0 to 1
Share of hydrogen
Percent
0
0
0
0 to 1

Footnotes