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Russia Sectors

What is Russiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C aligned targets
Current targets

Power sector in 2030

The lack of prioritisation of climate change in Russian energy policies has resulted in a very slow increase in renewable energy generation, rising from 15% in 1990 to just 20% in 2020, with 98% of this coming from hydropower.15 Russia is currently not on track to its weak, short-term, non-hydro renewable generation target of 4.5% by 2024, having already missed its 2020 target of 2.5%. A massive scaling up of policies towards, and investment in, renewable energy technologies is needed to ensure Russia’s power sector is decarbonised to align to a 1.5°C compatible pathway. A 74-92% share of renewables in total generation by 2030 would place Russia on a 1.5°C aligned trajectory, which would also require that coal be phased out of the power sector by 2028.

Due to a steep decline in the emissions intensive use of oil in the power sector, and a larger share of nuclear, by 2017 Russia’s power sector emissions intensity had fallen to 37% below its 1990 level. A much steeper reduction to 2030 is required for a 1.5°C pathway, which requires a 61-96% decline below 2017 levels.

Towards a fully decarbonised power sector

Under Russia’s recently approved long-term climate strategy, a net zero GHG emissions target was set for 2060, with an 80% reduction below 1990 target set for 2050. Under a 1.5°C aligned pathway, however, power sector CO₂ emissions would need to reach zero by 2040, with total CO₂ emissions reaching net zero by 2050. Russia’s Energy Strategy 2035 does not set emission reduction or renewable energy generation targets for the Russian power sector.

There are currently no policies implemented or planned that would place Russia on such a trajectory, with Russia’s latest emissions projections under planned policies showing only a 37% reduction in energy-related emissions below 1990 levels by 2030.2 A sharp deviation from the current planned expansion of domestic coal and gas consumption will be required to reach net zero power sector emissions on a 1.5°C aligned timeline, with a 2028 coal phase out and a phase out of natural gas by 2039 at the latest.22

1 Russian Federation. NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION OF the RUSSIAN FEDERATION. (2020).

2 Russian Federation. Russian Federation Fourth Biennial Report. (2019).

3 Russian Federation. Strategy for the Socio – Economic Development of Russia with Low Greenhouse Gas Emissions until 2050. (2021).

4 IPCC. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Chapter 6: Wastewater Treatment and Discharge. (2006).

5 Russian Federation. Russia Energy Strategy 2035. (2020).

6 Government of Russia. Russian Federation 2021 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. (2021).

7 IEA. World Energy Outlook 2016. (2016) doi:10.1787/weo-2016-en.

8 IEA. World Energy Outlook 2020. (2020).

9 Climate Transparency. Russia – Climate Transparency Report. (2020).

10 Vavina, E. Russia will allocate 725 billion rubles for the development of renewable energy by 2050. Vedomosti. (2019).

11 Climate Action Tracker. CAT Climate Action Update Tracker: Russian Federation. (2021).

12 IRENA. Remap 2030: Renewable Energy Prospects for the Russian Federation. A Renewable Energy Prospects for Ukraine (2017).

13 Russian Railways. Strategy for the Development of Rail Transport in the Russian Federation up to 2030. (2008).

14 The Moscow Times. Russia Rejects Climate Change Plan After Business Uproar. The Moscow Times. (2019).

15 IEA. World Energy Balances 2021. (International Energy Agency, 2021).

16 Davydova, A. Business is decarbonizing on paper and in corporate reports. Kommersant (2021)..

17 Russian Federation. Russian Draft Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2020. (2020).

18 Climate Transparency. Russia – Climate Transparency Report. (2021).

19 Stolyarov, G. Moscow, capital of oil-rich Russia, targets electric car growth. Reuters (2021).

20 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

21 Some pathways include sinks based on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), thus this is a conservative estimate.

22 Some pathways include sinks based on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Russiaʼs power mix

terawatt-hour per year

Scaling
Dimension
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020504 000
100%RE
20192030204020504 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020504 000
Low energy demand
20192030204020504 000
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020504 000
  • Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
  • Unabated fossil
  • Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
  • Renewables incl. biomass

Russiaʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
−600−400−200020040019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand
  • 100%RE

1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks

Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Russia

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised power sector by
Carbon intensity of power
gCO₂/kWh
270
30 to 90
−20 to 0
−240 to 0
2039
Relative to reference year in %
−89 to −67%
−106 to −100%
−189 to −100%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of phase-out
Share of unabated coal
Percent
17
0
0
0
2028
Share of unabated gas
Percent
46
6 to 18
0 to 3
0
2039 to 2047
Share of renewable energy
Percent
18
74 to 92
89 to 96
92 to 100
Share of unabated fossil fuel
Percent
64
6 to 21
0 to 3
0

Investments

Demand shifting towards the power sector

The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time compared with a current policy scenario. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.

Russiaʼs renewable electricity investments

Billion USD / yr

2030204020502060100

Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy

Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Russia to be on the order of USD 5 to 112 billion by 2030 and 4 to 96 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.

Footnotes