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Russia Sectors

What is Russiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Russia’s industry sector remains one of the most carbon intensive of the G20 group of countries, with carbon intensity almost double the G20 average in 2017 (of 0.7 tCO₂e/USD2015 GVA) and rising.18 The Russian steel industry is also more carbon intensive than the world average. The draft Energy Action Plan released in 2020 contained timelines to develop national energy efficiency standards, but these are already behind schedule, with the first having been scheduled to be released in the second half of 2021.17 The plan targets a very minor reduction (0.3%) in the energy intensity of cast iron production and a moderate reduction (17%) in cement and clinker production by 2030.

Total industry GHG emissions have been increasing in Russia since their nadir in 1998 that followed the break-up of the Soviet Union and the economic collapse this induced.6 In 2018 they reached their highest point since 1991, and over 60% above the 1998 low. Pathways aligned with 1.5°C show Russian energy-related CO₂ emissions falling by roughly half below 2019 levels by 2030, and hitting zero by 2050. Process emissions, generally a harder emissions type to mitigate, would need to fall by a third by 2030 and at least 70% by 2050.

These figures demonstrate that Russia would need to drastically ratchet up the ambition of its industry energy efficiency targets, and set clear emissions reduction targets to spur the level of action required to align its industry sector with the Paris Agreement.

Russiaʼs energy mix in the industry sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
201920302040205010 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
201920302040205010 000
Low energy demand
201920302040205010 000
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
201920302040205010 000
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Biomass
  • Hydrogen
  • Electricity
  • Heat

Russiaʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
010020030019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand

Russiaʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes

MtCO₂e/yr

5010015020025019902010203020502070
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Russia

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised industry sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
334
142 to 146
46 to 56
−2 to 16
2045 to 2050
Relative to reference year in %
−58 to −56%
−86 to −83%
−100 to −95%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
20
27
37 to 45
47 to 56
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
Percent
20
31 to 32
42 to 56
53 to 73

Footnotes