Russia’s industry sector remains one of the most carbon intensive of the G20 group of countries, with carbon intensity almost double the G20 average in 2017 (of 0.7 tCO₂e/USD2015GVA) and rising.18 The Russian steel industry is also more carbon intensive than the world average. The draft Energy Action Plan released in 2020 contained timelines to develop national energy efficiency standards, but these are already behind schedule, with the first having been scheduled to be released in the second half of 2021.17 The plan targets a very minor reduction (0.3%) in the energy intensity of cast iron production and a moderate reduction (17%) in cement and clinker production by 2030.
Total industry GHG emissions have been increasing in Russia since their nadir in 1998 that followed the break-up of the Soviet Union and the economic collapse this induced.6 In 2018 they reached their highest point since 1991, and over 60% above the 1998 low. Pathways aligned with 1.5°C show Russian energy-related CO₂ emissions falling by roughly half below 2019 levels by 2030, and hitting zero by 2050. Process emissions, generally a harder emissions type to mitigate, would need to fall by a third by 2030 and at least 70% by 2050.
These figures demonstrate that Russia would need to drastically ratchet up the ambition of its industry energy efficiency targets, and set clear emissions reduction targets to spur the level of action required to align its industry sector with the Paris Agreement.
Russiaʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
010020030019902010203020502070
Historical emissions
SSP1 High CDR reliance
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Low energy demand
Russiaʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
5010015020025019902010203020502070
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
SSP1 High CDR reliance
Low energy demand
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Russia