With unprecedented economic growth, electricity generation and consumption have increased four-fold in Qatar over the past two decades. Almost all of the country’s electricity is generated from gas-fired power plants, with a negligible share coming from solar PV and biofuels.10 QatarEnergy, which is the state-owned company responsible for national oil and gas in Qatar, as per Prince Decree 2/2017, has developed a Sustainability Strategy with a target to add 2–4 GW of renewable energy by 2030.11 Qatar has provided no plans to phase out fossil fuels from its power system.
Derived 1.5°C compatible pathways require Qatar to increase its share of renewable energy (including BECCS) in power generation to 8–15% by 2030 and 75–99% by 2050.
Phasing out gas-fired power plants from the power system between 2040 and 2049 would ensure Qatar’s alignment with Paris Agreement compatible pathways. The decline in the share of gas needs to be complemented by a sharp increase in the share of renewable energy in the power mix.
In 1.5°C compatible pathways, the power sector could be fully decarbonised between 2040 and 2046.
1 State of Qatar. Nationally Determined Contribution. 2021. NDC.pdf
2 US.Energy Information Administration. Country Analysis: Qatar. 2015.
3 World Bank. GDP (current 2010 US$) dataset. 2021.
4 Gütschow, J.; Günther, A.; Jeffery, L.; Gieseke, R. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2018) (Version 2.2). Preprint at doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4479172 (2021).
5 Our World in Data. Where in the world do people emit the most CO2? 2019.
6 International Energy Agency. Energy data and statistics. 2021.
7 Sayeed, M. 2016. Qatar’s National Emission Inventory. Academia. 2016.
8 Krarti, M., Ali, F., Alaidroos, A. & Houchati, M. Macro-economic benefit analysis of large scale building energy efficiency programs in Qatar. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 6, 597–609 (2017).
9 IRENA. Regional Trends. 2022.
10 International Renewable Energy Agency. Statistics Time Series. 2021.
11 QatarEnergy. Sustainability Report 2020. 2020. 2020 Sustainability Report.pdf
12 International Trade Administration. Qatar Electric Vehicles Challenges and Opportunities. 2021.
13 IEA. CO2 Emissions Statistics. 2019.
14 Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. Qatar Second National Development Strategy 2018-2022. 2018.
15 Hassabou, A. M. & Khan, M. A. Energy Efficient & Sustainable Buildings: Integration with solar assisted air-conditioning technology in Qatar-A Step towards Grid Free Zero Carbon Living. (2018) doi:10.18086/eurosun2018.06.15.
16 Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. Qatar Second National Development Strategy 2018~2022. 2018.
17 Gas Exporting Countries Forum. Qatar (Member). 2019.
18 Bloomberg. King of LNG Undercuts Rivals to Keep Dominating World Market. 2021.
19 BBC News. Qatar Crisis: What you need to know. 2017.
20 Al-Buenain, A. et al. The Adoption of Electric Vehicles in Qatar Can Contribute to Net Carbon Emission Reduction but Requires Strong Government Incentives. Vehicles 3, 618–635 (2021).
21 International Trade Administration. Qatar Electric Vehicles Challenges and Opportunities. Market Intelligence. 2021.
Qatarʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Qatarʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- 100%RE
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Qatar
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 480 | 330 to 370 | 0 to 80 | −50 to −30 | 2040 to 2046 |
Relative to reference year in % | −31 to −23% | −100 to −84% | −111 to −107% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 100 | 85 to 87 | 0 to 18 | 0 | 2040 to 2049 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 0 | 8 to 15 | 62 to 81 | 75 to 99 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 100 | 85 to 88 | 0 to 18 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Qatarʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Qatar to be on the order of USD 0.2 to 2.3 billion by 2030 and 0.1 to 11.2 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR’ reliance pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, particularly transport. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.