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Qatar Ambition gap

What is Qatarʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

2030 Ambition

Qatar aims to reduce its GHG emissions by 25% below a BAU scenario by 2030 but does not specify what that BAU scenario is.1 To estimate the level of ambition implied by this target, we construct a BAU range based on the historical ten-year trend of Qatar’s emissions for the upper range and a downscaled pathway that reflects factors such as falling costs of renewables for the lower range. We estimate a wide range of 147–213 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF for Qatar’s NDC target. To be 1.5°C compatible, Qatar would need to reduce its GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) by 53–59% below 2015 levels and reach a level of 78–90 MtCO₂e by 2030. While there is significant uncertainty in the formulation of Qatar’s target, our estimate places it well out of reach of 1.5°C.

While Qatar has adopted some sectoral policies, such as state-owned QatarEnergy’s Sustainability Strategy, they remain vague and lack detail in exactly what measures will be taken, and still promote the use of fossil gas.

Long-term pathway

Qatar does not have a net zero emissions target. To be compatible with a 1.5°C pathway, Qatar would need to reduce its GHG emissions by 90% below 2015 levels, reaching 20 MtCO₂e by 2050.

All 1.5°C pathways except the Low Energy Demand pathway show some use of carbon dioxide removal technologies in the energy system by 2040, and in some pathways the energy sector has net negative emissions by 2060.

1 State of Qatar. Nationally Determined Contribution. 2021. NDC.pdf

2 US.Energy Information Administration. Country Analysis: Qatar. 2015.

3 World Bank. GDP (current 2010 US$) dataset. 2021.

4 Gütschow, J.; Günther, A.; Jeffery, L.; Gieseke, R. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series (1850-2018) (Version 2.2). Preprint at doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4479172 (2021).

5 Our World in Data. Where in the world do people emit the most CO2? 2019.

6 International Energy Agency. Energy data and statistics. 2021.

7 Sayeed, M. 2016. Qatar’s National Emission Inventory. Academia. 2016.

8 Krarti, M., Ali, F., Alaidroos, A. & Houchati, M. Macro-economic benefit analysis of large scale building energy efficiency programs in Qatar. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment 6, 597–609 (2017).

9 IRENA. Regional Trends. 2022.

10 International Renewable Energy Agency. Statistics Time Series. 2021.

11 QatarEnergy. Sustainability Report 2020. 2020. 2020 Sustainability Report.pdf

12 International Trade Administration. Qatar Electric Vehicles Challenges and Opportunities. 2021.

13 IEA. CO2 Emissions Statistics. 2019.

14 Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. Qatar Second National Development Strategy 2018-2022. 2018.

15 Hassabou, A. M. & Khan, M. A. Energy Efficient & Sustainable Buildings: Integration with solar assisted air-conditioning technology in Qatar-A Step towards Grid Free Zero Carbon Living. (2018) doi:10.18086/eurosun2018.06.15.

16 Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics. Qatar Second National Development Strategy 2018~2022. 2018.

17 Gas Exporting Countries Forum. Qatar (Member). 2019.

18 Bloomberg. King of LNG Undercuts Rivals to Keep Dominating World Market. 2021.

19 BBC News. Qatar Crisis: What you need to know. 2017.

20 Al-Buenain, A. et al. The Adoption of Electric Vehicles in Qatar Can Contribute to Net Carbon Emission Reduction but Requires Strong Government Incentives. Vehicles 3, 618–635 (2021).

21 International Trade Administration. Qatar Electric Vehicles Challenges and Opportunities. Market Intelligence. 2021.

Methodology

Qatarʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
−100%−80%−60%−40%−20%0%20%19902010203020502070
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−58%
Estimated NDC
−24%
Ambition gap
−34%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions
2030 emissions levels
Estimated NDC
1.5°C emissions level
Ref. year 2015
193MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system transformation

More than half of Qatar’s GHG emissions come from fuel combustion in the industry, power, and transport sectors.13 Nearly one-third of GHG emissions are fugitive emissions from oil and gas exploration. Clear and stringent policies are critical for the transformation of these sectors. An implementation of energy efficiency and process optimisation measures is crucial to reduce emissions from the energy sector in Qatar. To be compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, Qatar would need to ramp up the uptake of renewable energy in its primary energy mix, reaching 4–7% by 2030 and 25–50% by 2050. Similarly, the share of renewable energy sources in the electricity generation mix would need to reach 8–15% by 2030 and 75–100% by 2050. At the same time, Qatar will need to phase out fossil fuels.

Methodology

Qatarʼs primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
Low energy demand
20192030204020501 0001 500
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
  • Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
  • Unabated fossil
  • Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
  • Renewables incl. biomass

Qatarʼs total CO₂ emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

02040608010012019902010203020502070
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Qatar. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference year
Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
193
196
81
78 to 90
35
30 to 38
18
14 to 20
Relative to reference year in %
−58%
−59 to −53%
−82%
−84 to −80%
−91%
−93 to −90%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
120
111
65
50 to 70
22
10 to 28
6
2 to 15
2070
2058
Relative to reference year in %
−46%
−59 to −42%
−82%
−92 to −77%
−95%
−98 to −88%

Footnotes