While Poland’s overall emissions decreased between 1990 and 2019, those from the industrial sector increased by 7% in the same period. Industrial process related emissions accounted for around 6% and industrial energy emissions accounted for 8% of total emissions in 2019 – a smaller share compared to the EU’s average of 9% and 10% respectively.
Electrification of the sector will be the main driver of emissions reductions from energy consumption which currently constitutes around 60% of all emissions from this sector. According to 1.5°C compatible scenarios, the share of electricity in energy consumption could increase from 29% in 2019 to between 43-47% in 2030 and up to 67% in 2050.
The remaining 40% of process related emissions show a significant decrease in the late 2020s, and especially in the 2030s, resulting in full decarbonisation by the end of that decade. The scenarios differ in terms of technologies used for decarbonisation some showing increasing share of electricity and hydrogen as the main drivers of emissions cuts.
The main policy for reducing emissions from the industrial sector in Poland is carbon pricing through the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). To reduce the potential threat of carbon leakage, many industry sectors receive free allowances, which have. Introducing Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism as proposed by the European Commission, combined with a full phase-out of free allowances would accelerate decarbonisation of the sector. Using such instruments as Carbon Contracts for Difference could facilitate deployment of low carbon technologies.