The Philippines updated its NDC in April 2021. The Philippines first NDC was a 70% reduction below an unspecified business-as-usual baseline by 2030, conditional on international support. The second NDC included both an unconditional and a conditional target, 2.71% and 72.29% reduction from a cumulative BAU, respectively.
As the BAU baseline was not reported in the original NDC it is difficult to determine if the updated NDC was more ambitious. The unconditional target is calculated to be equivalent to 383-423 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (excluding LULUCF). The new conditional target is calculated to be equivalent to 34-45% below 2015 levels (excluding LULUCF) or 100-120 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (excluding LULUCF).
The Philippines’ new conditional NDC is consistent with a 1.5˚C compatible pathway.
Our models show that a 1.5°C compatible pathway would require emissions peaking as soon as possible, and then decline to 41% below 2015 levels by 2030, when excluding LULUCF emissions.
Under the Paris Agreement, international support, including finance, technology transfer and capacity building, will be needed for The Philippines’ to close the emissions gap between its fair share and its domestic emissions pathway.
Long term pathway
A Paris Agreement compatible pathway would require emissions decreasing to 36-58 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 or 68-80% emission reduction below 2015 levels by 2050, excluding LULUCF. The sectoral emissions remaining in 2050 would be agriculture and waste in all scenarios, as well as industry in some scenarios.
Agriculture emissions are mainly from rice cultivation, digestive processes in animals and livestock manure. Modelling suggests that agriculture emissions, along with waste emissions, may continue as a source of emissions in the future under a 1.5°C compatible pathway, but at lower levels, requiring reduction policy in these sectors. On the road to net zero, the country will need to balance its remaining GHG emissions through the use of carbon dioxide removal approaches such as land sinks.