New Zealand updated its NDC in November 2021 with a stronger 2030 target. The updated NDC is not Paris Agreement compatible, and it is equivalent to a 38% reduction from 2005 levels excluding LULUCF.
The Minister for Climate Change requested the Climate Change Commission to advise on a 1.5°C consistent target. The Commission did not recommend a specific target, ´but that it should be “much more than 36%” below 2005 levels by 2030, leaving the decision to policy makers.22 These recommendations informed the NDC update, which failed to achieve a 1.5°C consistent target. 1.5°C compatible pathways require New Zealand to reduce emissions by 46% below 2005 levels by 2030, equivalent to around 44 MtCO₂e in 2030 excluding LULUCF.
The target has questionable environmental integrity on two counts.1 It sets the 2030 net emissions target based on gross 2005 levels. Including the forestry carbon sink in 2005 and excluding it in 2030 creates a higher baseline. Secondly, New Zealand uses different accounting approach for forestry which effectively further lowers the target.34
New Zealand released a consultation document on the first emissions reduction plan to meet its 2022-2025 emissions budget, seeking ideas for emissions reductions, with the plan scheduled for release end of May 20222. However, the government has been clear that it will have to meet as much as two thirds – or ~100 MtCO₂e – of its target through buying international carbon offsets.4
New Zealand emissions need to immediately peak and rapidly decline and it needs to ramp up its climate policy and targets. A key focus should be agriculture, as this sector is responsible for the largest share of emissions. Other key sub sectors include transport and energy use in industry as high emissions intensive sectors.
Long term pathway
In 2019, New Zealand legislated its “net zero” emissions target into law under the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act. The target aims for net zero emissions of all greenhouse gases other than biogenic methane by 2050. The Act also targets 24-47% below 2017 biogenic methane emissions by 2050.35
Setting a more lenient target for the agriculture sector is not aligned to a Paris Agreement compatible pathway when considering the huge share of emissions produced. To align to a Paris Agreement compatible pathway, New Zealand should start reducing GHG emissions rapidly to around 22 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 excluding LULUCF which translates in 73% below 2005 levels. In contrast, the current long term targets are estimated to reach 49 to 68 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 excluding LULUCF, which is only a reduction of 16-40% compared to 2005 levels.23 When considering projected LULUCF sinks, net zero GHG could be reached before 2040.33,36 ,
Taking a slower pathway or delaying peaking emissions would require costly negative emissions technologies to compensate. Most of the analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways show a fully decarbonised energy sector by 2040 and contribute negative emissions thereafter. The largest share of remaining emissions by 2050 will be from agriculture. Paris Agreement compatible scenarios show agriculture emissions ranging from 11-39 MtCO₂e by 2050, mostly coming from methane, which need to be compensated by negative emissions.
20 Ministry of Business Innovation & Employment. Unlocking our energy productivity and renewable potential : New Zealand energy efficiency and conservation strategy 2017-2022. (2017).
31 Including the residual methane emissions left from the separate methane target for 2050.
32 According to national projections, LULUCF emissions could reach -26 to -31 MtCO₂e by 2040. See the Government 2020 for LULUCF projection estimates.30
33 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
36 According to national projections, LULUCF emissions could reach -36 to -41 MtCO₂e by 2040. See the Climate Action Tracker assessment on New Zealand (July 2020 update) for assumptions on LULUCF projections.
New Zealand needs to decarbonise its energy sector, including industry, transport and power to bring the country in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway. A full phase out of unabated fossil fuels is possible before 2050. Unabated fossil fuels (mainly natural gas) currently represent 59% of primary energy, and needs to contract to between zero -18% by 2030. By 2030, renewables could represent up to 83% of primary energy, and up to 98% by 2050.
A fossil fuel phase out in primary energy by 2050 would require decarbonising the power sector from 82% renewables in 2019 to near 100% renewables by 2030. New Zealand would need to bring forward its current 100% renewables target by at least five years in order to align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway. The scale up of renewables is vital to decarbonise other sectors as they become electrified.
Transport and energy use in industry could be decarbonised through electrification, sector coupling and replacing fossil fuel feedstocks with renewable hydrogen. Energy efficiency measures could also reduce the demand for energy and the reliance on fossil fuels.
Some of the analysed scenarios show the option of deploying negative emissions technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) almost immediately, and fossil fuels carbon capture and storage in future. These are highly unlikely, due to the high penetration of renewables, the unproven feasibility of BECCS, and the high costs of the technology.
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for New Zealand. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.