As of 2019, Namibia’s transport mix is based entirely on imported fossil fuels.
Namibia’s sparsely populated but large landmass necessitates long-distance travel between population centres, with road use dominating rail transport. Public transport is a substantial proportion of road travel. The sector contributed 13% of CO₂ emissions in 2017. Even so, direct emissions from transport amounted to just over 2 MtCO₂ in 2019.
Stated mitigation efforts in this sector include increasing the rail network coverage from 230 km in 2021 to 360 km by 2030, a carbon tax,, a cap on new private vehicle ownership from 2018, fuel efficiency measures applied to 80% of cars and light duty vehicles, and switching from diesel to hydrogen.
Our analysis suggests that to fully decarbonise the sector by around 2050, the current reliance on fossil fuels would need to end. The illustrative 1.5°C pathways analysed indicate an increase in the share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass-derived liquid fuels would be needed by 2030.
Across analysed 1.5°C pathways, Namibia moves away from its 100% oil-based transport sector and increases the share of electricity in the sector to 6-21% by 2030 and 25-43% by 2050. Hydrogen also increases to up to 1-23% by 2030 and 54-56% by 2050.