As of 2019, Namibia’s transport mix is based entirely on imported fossil fuels.1
Namibia’s sparsely populated but large landmass necessitates long-distance travel between population centres, with road use dominating rail transport. Public transport is a substantial proportion of road travel. The sector contributed 13% of CO₂ emissions in 2017. Even so, direct emissions from transport amounted to just over 2 MtCO₂ in 2019.
Stated mitigation efforts in this sector include increasing the rail network coverage from 230 km in 2021 to 360 km by 2030, a carbon tax,2,12 a cap on new private vehicle ownership from 2018, fuel efficiency measures applied to 80% of cars and light duty vehicles, and switching from diesel to hydrogen.1
Our analysis suggests that to fully decarbonise the sector by around 2050, the current reliance on fossil fuels would need to end. The illustrative 1.5°C pathways analysed indicate an increase in the share of electricity, hydrogen and biomass-derived liquid fuels would be needed by 2030.
Across analysed 1.5°C pathways, Namibia moves away from its 100% oil-based transport sector and increases the share of electricity in the sector to 6-21% by 2030 and 25-43% by 2050. Hydrogen also increases to up to 1-23% by 2030 and 54-56% by 2050.
1 Republic of Namibia. Namibia’s NDC Update. (2021).
2 Republic of Namibia. Fourth Biennial Update Report (BUR4) to the UNFCCC. (2021).
3 Ministry of Mines and Energy. National Energy Policy. (2017).
4 United Nations Environment Programme. Atlas of Africa Energy Resources. (2017).
5 IEA. Data & Statistics – IEA. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser?country=WORLD&fuel=Energy consumption&indicator=ElecConsPerCapita (2021).
6 Net Zero Tracker. Namibia profile. (2022).
7 Ministry of Mines and Energy. National Renewable Energy Policy. (2017).
8 IRENA. Energy Profile: Namibia. (2022).
9 Namibia Power Corporation. NamPower – Ruacana Power Station. (2022).
10 Republic of Namibia. Fourth National Communication to the UNFCCC. (2020).
11 There is no data for the commercial and public buildings sector before 1996.
12 Note that a Carbon Tax – starting at N$40 per g/km of CO₂ in the 2016-2020 transition period – is mentioned in the 4th Biennial Update Report (BUR4), published in early 2021, however, there is no mention of any extension in the NDC submitted to the UNFCCC in late 2021.
Namibiaʼs energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Namibiaʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Namibia
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised transport sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2047 to 2050 |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 0 | 6 to 21 | 17 to 36 | 25 to 43 |
Share of biofuels Percent | 0 | 2 to 11 | 4 to 59 | 10 to 62 |
Share of hydrogen Percent | 0 | 1 to 23 | 34 to 52 | 54 to 56 |