Namibia’s updated NDC includes an overall mitigation target to reduce emissions to 91% below business as usual (BAU) emissions in 2030, when including LULUCF. The government expects BAU emissions in 2030 to rise “up to 24.1 MtCO₂e/yr”, therefore, if successfully mitigated, emissions in 2030 would be 2.2 MtCO₂e/yr.
Namibia undertakes to mitigate only 14% of the 91% target unconditionally. The remaining 77% forms the conditional part of its target and requires international support.
Namibia’s official communications identify the AFOLU sector as the key driver of emission reductions. In the NDC update (2021) the government projects that this one sector would account for emissions reductions of 78.7% below BAU by 2030. These reductions would result from land use and forestry measures. Agriculture still produces emissions (predominantly methane).
Due to this high reliance on the land use sector, the conditional portion would amount to a 34% reduction below 2015 levels by 2030 when excluding LULUCF. This is equivalent to emissions of 8 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) in 2030, 1 MtCO₂e below the 1.5°C compatible emissions level of 9 MtCO₂e/yr.
Long term pathway
As of 16 December 2022, Namibia has not communicated a long-term strategy or set a net zero target. A 1.5°C compatible pathway could be achieved if Namibia was able to reduce its total CO₂ sufficiently to 0-1 MtCO₂/yr by around 2050. By 2050, greenhouse gas emissions (excl. LULUCF) decline 46-67% below 2015 levels. Remaining emissions are largely harder-to-abate agricultural emissions (primarily methane).