Myanmar’s residential sector has consistently accounted for the largest part of the country’s total final energy consumption. Biomass accounts for the vast majority of final energy supply in the building sector (residential and commercial) with electricity and oil providing smaller shares. As such, Myanmar’s population has relatively low access to electricity (66%) and clean cooking (28%). The government has taken steps towards increasing electricity access, particularly in rural communities, through the on-going National Electrification Plan. The goal of this plan is to reach a 100% electrification rate for households by 2030., As stated in the country’s NDC, a significant portion of this electrification will come as the result of mini-grids and solar home systems. Moreover, the NDC has set targets to distribute fuel efficient cookstoves which will result in an estimated 28 MtCO₂e of avoided emissions over the period 2021-2030.
As is the case with the country’s total emissions, those of the building sector have increased substantially since 2015. Emissions from energy demands in the building sector grew from 6 ktCO₂/yr in 2015 to 1 MtCO₂/yr in 2019, an increase of 246%. This reflects the changes in the energy mix with oil accounting for an increasing share of the sector’s final energy. This has led to increased emissions intensity from the sector’s energy demands, from 0.01 to 2.97 gCO₂/MJ between 2015 and 2019. Although the government has not set explicit emissions reductions targets for the buildings sector in its NDC, they have set conditional energy efficiency targets, 7.8% and 4% improvements by 2030 from 2012 levels for the residential and commercial sectors respectively.
1.5°C compatible pathways see the building sector rapidly electrifying. Electricity’s share in final energy supply increases from 9% in 2019 to between 34-81% by 2030 and between 81-96% by 2050. Taken together with the increased share of renewables, and consequent decreased emissions intensity, in the power sector, emissions from energy demands in the building sector will fall to 0.52-0.56 MtCO₂/yr by 2050 (a decrease of 62-64% from 2019 levels).