The industry sector’s share of total final energy consumption in Morocco has been declining over the past decade, from 23.5% of total final consumption in 2012 to 19.2% in 2019 while emissions have been steadily rising. The Government of Morocco estimates that emissions from this sector will rise from around 20 MtCO₂e in 2010 to 33.23 MtCO₂e in 2030 under a business as usual (BAU) scenario, which is equivalent to 65% by 2030.
The energy-related direct CO₂ emissions of Morocco’s industry sector are slightly higher than the emissions from industry-related processes. To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Morocco’s industry sector would need to decarbonise between 2048-2054, with direct CO₂ emissions reducing from 8 MtCO₂/year in 2019 to 3 MtCO₂ in 2040, and 0-2 MtCO₂ by 2050.
Some scenarios indicate that energy-related emissions will reduce faster than process-related emissions. Almost all scenarios indicate that energy-related emissions will be closer to full decarbonisation by 2060. The decarbonisation would be primarily driven by an increase in the share of electricity in the sector’s energy supply from 33% in 2019 to 50-64% by 2050. Some scenarios also suggest that biofuels, biomass, and hydrogen would start to replace some of the oil and coal that currently power 61% of the industry sector. These new sources of energy could be introduced as early as 2030-2040. To be consistent with 1.5°C pathways, the collective share of electricity, biomass, and hydrogen in the sector’s energy supply would have to increase from 34% in 2019 to 52-62% in 2040, and 73-85% by 2050.
With regards to process-related emissions, some scenarios suggest that emissions could reduce from 6 MtCO₂e in 2019 to 0-4 MtCO₂e by 2040. This could be driven by improved production processes and innovation. Morocco aims to mitigate 19 MtCO₂e in the total industry sector by 2030 (relative to BAU levels)this includes 8 MtCO₂e by 2030 (relative to BAU levels) for process-related emissions. However, one of the mitigation interventions for processing industries is the utilisation of 500 million m³ of natural gas between 2021 and 2023 to replace fuel in thermal processes. This will lead to increase in emissions, and risks the country locking itself in a carbon-intensive pathway and creating stranded assets.