Power sector in 2030
1.5°C pathways show that Mexico’s power sector could be fully decarbonised by 2040, and contribute to negative emissions thereafter. To achieve this, the share of renewable energy in the power mix would need to reach at least 75% by 2030, and coal and gas would need to be phased out by 2029 and 2038–2040, respectively. Decarbonising the power sector at this rate would allow Mexico to get on a 1.5°C compatible pathway without having to rely extensively on the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches.
In its mid-century strategy, the Mexican government considers nuclear, CCS and co-generation as “clean energies”. However, Mexico’s “clean” energy targets of 40% of the power mix by 2034 and 50% by 2050 are not in line with Paris-compatible pathways.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Decarbonising Mexico’s power sector by 2040 in line with 1.5°C compatible pathways would require drastic policy changes. The fossil fuel share in the power generation would need to fall from 80% in 2019 to between 8–20% by 2030. Fossil fuels should be fully phased out from the power sector by 2040. Investing in a steep increase in renewable energy over the short term is safer than relying on carbon removal technologies given the latter’s commercially unproven nature. However, Mexico has currently no plans to phase out unabated fossil fuels from the country’s power mix.