In 2017, Mexico’s national emissions excluding LULUCF were over 730 MtCO₂e, of which the energy sector was responsible for over 70%.6 The second biggest emitter was agriculture at about 14%, with industry and waste contributing roughly equally to the remaining 14% of the country’s total emissions. Within the energy sector, transport and power generation were the main emitters in 2017, although transport has become the highest emitting sector in recent years.7
Current policy projections indicate that Mexico’s total emissions in 2030 emissions would be between 807–831 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF.8 This range is far outside of a 1.5°C compatible emissions range. While the transport sector is the greatest contributor to overall emissions, the power sector offers the greatest opportunities for rapid decarbonisation. Through electrification, a decarbonised power sector will steer emissions reductions in end-use sectors such as transport.
1 Gobierno de México. Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional. Actualización 2022. 1–45 Preprint at https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-11/Mexico_NDC_UNFCCC_update2022_FINAL.pdf (2022).
2 Climate Action Tracker. Mexico. CAT September 2020 Update (2020).
3SENER. Prospectiva del Sector Eléctrico 2017-2031. (2017).
4 Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT) & Gobierno de México. Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático. Informe CICC (2013).
5 Government of Mexico. Mexico’s Climate Change Mid-Century Strategy. (2016).
6 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). Preprint at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5175154 (2021).
7 Climate Transparency. Mexico Country Profile. (2020).
10 Congreso General de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. Diario Oficial de la Federación. Ley de la industria eléctrica. (2014).
11 Cámara de Diputados del H. Congreso de la Unión. Diario Oficial de la Federación. Ley de Transición Energética. Diario Oficial de la Federacion 1–31 (2015).
14 Congreso General de los Estados Unidos Mexicanos. Ley General de Cambio Climatico. Diario Oficial de la Federacion Mexicana (2012). doi:10.1007/978-3-319-67666-1_8.
15 Government of Mexico. Compromisos de Mitigación y Adaptación Ante el Cambio Climático para el Periodo 2020-2030. (2015).
16 Gobierno de Mexico. Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional de México: Actualización 2020. (2020).
17CONAFOR. Estrategia Nacional para REDD+ 2017-2030 (ENAREDD+). 6 (2017).
20 Tornel, C. Petro-populism and infrastructural energy landscapes: The case of Mexico’s Dos Bocas Refinery. Nordia Geographical Publications 49, 6–31 (2021).
25 Chavez, I. Edificios con eficiencia energética, diminuyen hasta 25% de consumo energético. Factor Energetico. (2022).
26 Mexico Government, Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales & Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático. Mexico. National Inventory Report (NIR) 1990-2019. (2022).
32 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
Mexicoʼs current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
Displayed values
By sector
Power
Transport
Industry (energy use)
Other
Buildings
Fugitive emissions
Agriculture
Industry (processes)
Waste
LULUCF
By gas
CO₂
CH₄
N₂O
Other
066%0
Sectors by gas
Energy
093%0
Agriculture
063%0
Industry (processes)
078%0
Energy system
Fossil fuels currently account for 85% of Mexico’s total energy supply. Oil is the largest source of primary energy at almost 50%, largely because of the high oil consumption in the transport sector.7 The role of oil in the power sector, however, has decreased over the past two decades due to a major shift to fossil gas.9
In 2015, Mexico passed the Energy Transition Law which set targets to achieve 25% “clean” power generation by 2018, 30% by 2021, and 35% by 2024. Additional targets were set under the National Climate Change Strategy: 40% clean power by 2034 and 50% by 2050.4 However, Mexico’s definition of “clean energy” includes nuclear, CCS, and efficient co-generation.10,11 Mexico did not meet its 2018, or 2021 clean energy targets and is not on track to meet its 2024 target either.12
In 2020 the government rolled back new renewable energy projects, citing energy security concerns due to the COVID-19 pandemic.2 The government has also prioritised the modernisation of existing fossil fuel plants and refineries, while recently cancelling the fourth clean energy auction.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Baseline scenario target
NDC target
Conditional target:
40% below BAU by 2030 incl. LULUCF.
6% below 2015 by 2030 excl. LULUCF (689 MtCO₂e/yr).13
Black carbon reduced by 70% below BAU by 2030 incl. LULUCF.
Unconditional target:
35% below BAU by 2030 incl. LULUCF, whereby 30% to be achieved with the country’s own resources and additional 5% with already agreed international cooperation on “clean energy sources/projects”.1
7% above 2015 levels by 2030 excl. LULUCF (786 MtCO2/yr).1
Current NDC does not indicate the use of market mechanisms in its implementation.
Long-term target
Mexico has submitted a long-term strategy in 2016 to the UNFCCC.14
Sector coverage
EnergyIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCF
Greenhouse gas coverage
CO₂CH₄NF₃HFCsN₂OSF₆
Sectoral targets
Energy
Reducing emissions from the oil and gas sectors by 14%.15,16
Mexico has set a target of 98% utilisation of methane gas for the oil sector as part of its commitment to reduce methane emissions and the Global methane commitment.
Buildings
Promoting energy savings and energy efficiency regulations.
*Reducing wood consumption in rural areas.
Waste
Improving the management of urban and industrial solid waste and wastewater.
Implementing the National Circular Economy Strategy.
LULUCF
Implementing the National strategy for reducing emissions from deforestation (ENAREDD+).15,16,17
Power
Integrating clean energy into the electricity generation.
Building four new hydropower plants with a capacity of 284 MW.
Increasing the generation of photovoltaic, wind and geothermal power plants.
Transport
Consolidating the National electric mobility strategy.15,16
Expanding the rail network.
Promoting the transition to more efficient vehicles and clean transport.
Agriculture
Promoting agroecological practices and conservation agriculture.