Mexico’s updated 2020 NDC was revoked following a lawsuit for rolling back the government’s initial commitment, which goes against the Paris Agreement’s principles of non-regression. During COP27, Mexico submitted an updated NDC which includes both an unconditional and conditional target relative to a BAU scenario. Mexico unconditionally commits to reducing emissions by up to 35% by 2030. Of that, Mexico intends to achieve 30% with its own resources and an additional 5% with already agreed international cooperation for “clean energies”. Furthermore, Mexico commits to reducing its emissions by 40% from the BAU level by 2030 on the condition that it receives adequate international support.
Mexico’s conditional NDC target which translates into a 5% emissions increase above 2015 levels to emissions decrease of 6% below 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF, is not consistent with 1.5˚C compatible domestic pathways. Our analysis indicates that Mexico would need to reduce emissions by 40–56% below 2015 levels by 2030 (excl. LULUCF) to be 1.5˚C compatible. This would mean reaching emissions levels of 338–441 MtCO₂e in 2030.
Long term pathway
To align with a 1.5˚C compatible pathway, Mexico’s mid-century GHG emissions should be around 64 to 133 MtCO₂e/yr, excluding LULUCF, equivalent to reductions of around 80–91% below 2015 emissions levels.
The pathways that show a higher share of renewable energy by 2040 show less or no reliance on carbon dioxide removal technologies. Some scenarios show a full decarbonisation of the energy sector as soon as 2040.
Some scenarios show a full decarbonisation of the energy sector as soon as 2040. The projections also suggest that agriculture and industry processes will be the last sectors to decarbonise.