Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan’s industrial sector, and consequentially its emissions, sharply contracted with the loss of Soviet demand. Following a transition period, Kazakhstan’s economy and industries started to recover around 1999. Kazakhstan’s top industries are metallurgy of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, hydrocarbon production, textiles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals and fertilizers.
Energy-related emissions from Kazakhstan’s industry sector have fluctuated significantly, increasing 44% from 2000 to 2019. Fossil fuels account for the majority of the final energy mix, supplying 65% of Kazakhstan’s industry sector energy needs in 2017. While the share of coal has been declining, it still supplied 28% of the mix in 2017. The supply of electricity in the industry sector has remained fairly constant since the mid-2000s.
Analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways show the industry sector’s energy mix is decarbonised by 2047 at the latest. This is driven largely by higher electrification rates in most pathways, ramping up to 50 to 67% by mid-century. Pathways that show lower electrification rates have higher adoption of hydrogen and heat. Kazakhstan’s Doctrine to achieve carbon neutrality does not show a reduction of industrial energy emissions in line with our 1.5°C compatible benchmark, with industrial energy emissions peaking in 2030 and declining 80% below 1990 levels by 2060 in its carbon neutrality scenario.
Kazakhstan’s process-related industry emissions have also increased, 65% since 2000, though have slightly declined from 2017-2019. Analysed 1.5°C pathways show Kazakhstan’s process-related emissions declining immediately to be almost completely phased out as early as 2040.
Kazakhstan’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) covers the country’s main industries (extractive, oil and gas mining, metallurgy, chemical, and processing); however, the ETS only covers CO₂ emissions and previous phases of the scheme have had limited impact.,