Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Kazakhstan’s industrial sector, and consequentially its emissions, sharply contracted with the loss of Soviet demand. Following a transition period, Kazakhstan’s economy and industries started to recover around 1999. Kazakhstan’s top industries are metallurgy of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, hydrocarbon production, textiles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals and fertilizers.¹⁵

Energy-related emissions from Kazakhstan’s industry sector have fluctuated significantly, increasing 44% from 2000 to 2019. Fossil fuels account for the majority of the final energy mix, supplying 65% of Kazakhstan’s industry sector energy needs in 2017. While the share of coal has been declining, it still supplied 28% of the mix in 2017. The supply of electricity in the industry sector has remained fairly constant since the mid-2000s.

Analysed 1.5°C compatible pathways show the industry sector’s energy mix is decarbonised by 2047 at the latest. This is driven largely by higher electrification rates in most pathways, ramping up to 50 to 67% by mid-century. Pathways that show lower electrification rates have higher adoption of hydrogen and heat. Kazakhstan’s Doctrine to achieve carbon neutrality does not show a reduction of industrial energy emissions in line with our 1.5°C compatible benchmark, with industrial energy emissions peaking in 2030 and declining 80% below 1990 levels by 2060 in its carbon neutrality scenario.³

Kazakhstan’s process-related industry emissions have also increased, 65% since 2000, though have slightly declined from 2017-2019. Analysed 1.5°C pathways show Kazakhstan’s process-related emissions declining immediately to be almost completely phased out as early as 2040.

Kazakhstan’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) covers the country’s main industries (extractive, oil and gas mining, metallurgy, chemical, and processing); however, the ETS only covers CO₂ emissions and previous phases of the scheme have had limited impact.^8,9

¹ Republic of Kazakhstan. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution – Submission of the Republic of Kazakhstan. 2016.

² Climate Action Tracker. Kazakhstan. September 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.

³ Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Doctrine (strategy) of achieving carbon neutrality of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2060. 2021.

⁴ Assel Satubaldina. Tokayev Announces Kazakhstan’s Pledge to Reach Carbon Neutrality by 2060. The Astana Times. 2020.

⁵ Republic of Kazakhstan. Fourth Biennial Report of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2019.

⁶ Official Information Source of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan presents plans to achieve carbon neutrality. 2022.

⁷ IEA & EU4Energy. Clean Household Energy Consumption in Kazakhstan: A Roadmap. 2020.

⁸ IEA. Kazakhstan 2022 Energy Sector Review. 2022.

⁹ International Carbon Action Partnership. Kazakhstan Emissions Trading System. 2022.

¹⁰ International Transport Forum. Enhancing Connectivity and Freight in Central Asia. 2019.

¹¹ Tanzila Khan, Sumati Kohli, Zifei Yang & Josh Miller. Zero-emission vehicle deployment: Europe, Middle East, and Central & South Asia. 2022..

¹² Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). Preprint at doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5175154 (2021).

¹³ President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Concept for transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Green Economy. Preprint at policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/Concept%20on%20Transition%20towards%20Green%20Economy%20until%202050%20%28EN%29.pdf (2013).

¹⁴ Pedro Plowman. Kazakhstan has launched a massive project to plant one million trees every day until 2026. Medium. 2020.

¹⁵ Lloyds Bank. The economic context of Kazakhstan. 2022.

¹⁶ CIA. The World Factbook: Kazakhstan. 2023.