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Kazakhstan Sectors

What is Kazakhstanʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Kazakhstan’s building sector direct CO₂ emissions accounted for about 12% of total emissions in 2019. Since 1990, these emissions have increased drastically, more than 80-fold, despite declining for a brief period in the 90s. This increase is due to both an increase in demand and emissions intensity.

Due to Kazakhstan’s cold climate, clean and affordable heating for buildings is essential. Many Kazakhstanis still rely on solid fuels for residential heating largely due to high electricity prices and lack of access to other alternatives such as district heating.7 This reliance on coal burning for residential heating is the largest source of air pollution in Kazakhstan.7 In 2019, Kazakhstan’s building sector was supplied largely by fossil fuels, with 34% from fossil gas, 23% by coal and 16% by oil. Electricity accounted for only 10% of final energy in 2019.

Across analysed pathways, building sector direct CO₂ emissions decline immediately and the sector is fully decarbonised between 2042 and 2050. Across most analysed pathways, this is enabled by rapid electrification. Pathways that show relatively lower electrification rates in 2050 show higher hydrogen and heat use. Increased electrification will drive decarbonisation of the sector only if the power sector itself is decarbonised (see power sector).

Emissions from the residential sector, such as from coal burning, are largely unregulated under Kazakhstan’s Environmental Code, updated in 2021. The government is working to extend its gas pipeline network and adopted energy efficiency requirements for new and renovated buildings in 2012. Kazakhstan’s Doctrine to achieve carbon neutrality anticipates residential buildings reaching carbon neutrality by 2060 and non-residential buildings by 2050. While the target for non-residential buildings is in-line with our decarbonisation benchmark, residential buildings would need to be decarbonised at least a full decade earlier to be 1.5°C compatible.

1 Republic of Kazakhstan. Intended Nationally Determined Contribution – Submission of the Republic of Kazakhstan. 2016.

2 Climate Action Tracker. Kazakhstan. September 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.

3 Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Doctrine (strategy) of achieving carbon neutrality of the Republic of Kazakhstan until 2060. 2021.

4 Assel Satubaldina. Tokayev Announces Kazakhstan’s Pledge to Reach Carbon Neutrality by 2060. The Astana Times. 2020.

5 Republic of Kazakhstan. Fourth Biennial Report of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2019.

6 Official Information Source of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan presents plans to achieve carbon neutrality. 2022.

7 IEA & EU4Energy. Clean Household Energy Consumption in Kazakhstan: A Roadmap. 2020.

8 IEA. Kazakhstan 2022 Energy Sector Review. 2022.

9 International Carbon Action Partnership. Kazakhstan Emissions Trading System. 2022.

10 International Transport Forum. Enhancing Connectivity and Freight in Central Asia. 2019.

11 Tanzila Khan, Sumati Kohli, Zifei Yang & Josh Miller. Zero-emission vehicle deployment: Europe, Middle East, and Central & South Asia. 2022..

12 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). Preprint at (2021).

13 President of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Concept for transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Green Economy. Preprint at (2013).

14 Pedro Plowman. Kazakhstan has launched a massive project to plant one million trees every day until 2026. Medium. 2020.

15 Lloyds Bank. The economic context of Kazakhstan. 2022.

16 CIA. The World Factbook: Kazakhstan. 2023.

Kazakhstanʼs energy mix in the buildings sector

petajoule per year

SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 000
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020501 000
Low energy demand
20192030204020501 000
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 000
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biomass
  • Biogas
  • Biofuel
  • Electricity
  • Heat
  • Hydrogen

Kazakhstanʼs buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)


  • Historical emissions
  • High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand

1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, heat and biomass in the buildings final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Kazakhstan

Decarbonised buildings sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
11 to 20
5 to 8
1 to 2
2042 to 2050
Relative to reference year in %
−75 to −54%
−89 to −82%
−97 to −96%
Share of electricity
24 to 33
44 to 61
58 to 77
Share of heat
10 to 57
7 to 66
19 to 70
Share of hydrogen
0 to 1
2 to 7
3 to 45