Jamaica’s updated NDC target covers only the energy and LULUCF sectors. The NDC sets an unconditional emissions reduction target of 25.4% below a business-as-usual scenario (BAU) which corresponds to a reduction of around 1.8 MtCO₂e, to a level of 5.3 MtCO₂e. On the condition that it receives adequate international support, the government commits to an emissions reduction of 28.5% below BAU (a reduction of 2.0 MtCO₂e) by 2030.
There are significant discrepancies in Jamaica’s historical emissions between different datasets, but we have estimated its emissions level to be around 14.0 MtCO₂e in 2030 which represents a decrease of 6% compared to 2015 levels, excluding LULUCF.
Jamaica’s unconditional emissions reduction target alone is 60% higher than the country’s first NDC which aimed at an emissions reduction of between 1.1 to 1.5 MtCO₂e by 2030. The updated NDC covers more sectors beyond energy and LULUCF within its qualitative commitments to include agriculture and waste sectors.
1.5°C compatible pathways assessed here based on PRIMAP-Hist historical emissions data suggest that the country could reduce its emissions by 33–59% below 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF (or 6-10 MtCO₂e by 2030).
Long term pathway
Jamaica is currently in the process of developing its long-term low-emission development strategy (LT-LEDS)., Our analysis shows that to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the country would need to reduce its total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF by 62–86%, leading to emissions levels of 2-6 MtCO₂eq/yr by 2050. LULUCF has so far not had a noticeable effect on total emissions in the country. Jamaica’s updated NDC, which covers the LULUCF sector, includes a target of achieving a sink of -1 MtCO₂e by 2030. While the target is a step in the right direction, the sink will need to be strengthened and coupled with greater emissions reductions in the power and agricultural sectors.