The industry sector’s share of total final energy consumption in Ghana has increased over the past decade, taking the third-highest share of total final consumption in 2019 (18% of total final consumption). However, emissions from the manufacturing industry and construction have declined by 14% between 2012 and 2016. Within the sector, food processing is the dominant source of emissions, followed by mining and quarrying, textile and leather, and construction. The sector’s energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels, including diesel and oil, LPG and gasoline.
To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the sector’s energy-related emissions would have to peak by 2030 and reach full decarbonisation between 2035-2037. This would be primarily driven by an increase in the share of electricity in the sector’s energy mix from 25% in 2019 to 37-38% in 2030, and 70% by 2050. Some scenarios suggest that biomass, and to a lesser extent, hydrogen, would also support the decarbonisation of the sector. The combined share of electricity, hydrogen, and biomass in the sector’s energy supply would then increase from 45% in 2019 to 56-72% in 2030, and 90-95% by 2050. These ambitious increases would likely need international technical and financial support to achieve.
It should be noted, however, that Ghana currently relies heavily on traditional biomass energy, which has negative health and sustainability implications. The uptake of conventional renewable biomass energy would be crucial to facilitating the timely decarbonisation of the industry sector.
With regards to process-related emissions, some scenarios suggest that emissions could reduce from around 0.5 MtCO₂e/yr in 2019 to approximately 0-0.3 MtCO₂e/yr by 2040. This could be driven by improved production processes and innovation.
Ghana has articulated few quantified mitigation targets for the industry sector. In its updated NDC, it mentions “sustainable production in industry” as a policy action with an estimated impact of 1.48 MtCO₂e, but does not specify what this would entail. Promotion of energy efficiency in homes, industry, and commerce is also highlighted, and has a collective emissions mitigation potential of 1.89 MtCO₂e. It is unclear what proportion of this emissions reductions would be derived from the industry sector.
The intention to sustain and increase investments in the oil and gas industry also weaken the potential to mitigate energy-related emissions in the industry sector, and therefore pose a challenge to Ghana’s alignment with 1.5°C pathways.