The industry sector’s share of total final energy consumption in Ghana has increased over the past decade, taking the third-highest share of total final consumption in 2019 (18% of total final consumption).⁸ However, emissions from the manufacturing industry and construction have declined by 14% between 2012 and 2016.¹ Within the sector, food processing is the dominant source of emissions, followed by mining and quarrying, textile and leather, and construction.¹ The sector’s energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels, including diesel and oil, LPG and gasoline.¹

To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, the sector’s energy-related emissions would have to peak by 2030 and reach full decarbonisation between 2035-2037. This would be primarily driven by an increase in the share of electricity in the sector’s energy mix from 25% in 2019 to 37-38% in 2030, and 70% by 2050. Some scenarios suggest that biomass, and to a lesser extent, hydrogen, would also support the decarbonisation of the sector. The combined share of electricity, hydrogen, and biomass in the sector’s energy supply would then increase from 45% in 2019 to 56-72% in 2030, and 90-95% by 2050. These ambitious increases would likely need international technical and financial support to achieve.

It should be noted, however, that Ghana currently relies heavily on traditional biomass energy, which has negative health and sustainability implications. The uptake of conventional renewable biomass energy would be crucial to facilitating the timely decarbonisation of the industry sector.

With regards to process-related emissions, some scenarios suggest that emissions could reduce from around 0.5 MtCO₂e/yr in 2019 to approximately 0-0.3 MtCO₂e/yr by 2040. This could be driven by improved production processes and innovation.

Ghana has articulated few quantified mitigation targets for the industry sector. In its updated NDC, it mentions “sustainable production in industry” as a policy action with an estimated impact of 1.48 MtCO₂e, but does not specify what this would entail.⁷ Promotion of energy efficiency in homes, industry, and commerce is also highlighted, and has a collective emissions mitigation potential of 1.89 MtCO₂e.⁷ It is unclear what proportion of this emissions reductions would be derived from the industry sector.⁵

The intention to sustain and increase investments in the oil and gas industry also weaken the potential to mitigate energy-related emissions in the industry sector, and therefore pose a challenge to Ghana’s alignment with 1.5°C pathways.

¹ Environmental Protection Agency of Ghana. Ghana’s Fourth National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2019.

² Xinhua. Ghana committed to achieving net-zero carbon emission by 2070: VP. XINHAUNET.com english.news.cn/africa/20220929/08f760f69b9947a48d544e5cb423ddca/c.html (2022).

³ Xinhua. Ghana committed to achieving net-zero carbon emission by 2070 – Bawumia. News Ghana newsghana.com.gh/ghana-committed-to-achieving-net-zero-carbon-emission-by-2070-bawumia/ (2022).

⁴ Ministry of Petroleum, Government of Ghana. Gas Master Plan Developed By Ministry of Petroleum. 2016.

⁵ National Development Planning Commission. National Medium-Term Development Policy Framework 2022-2025. 2021.

⁶ Government of Ghana. Ghana’s Second Biennial Update Report. 2018.

⁷ Environmental Protection Agency and the Ministry of Environment, S. T. and I. Updated Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement (2020 – 2030). 2021.

⁸ International Energy Agency. Ghana: Data Browser. International Energy Agency. 2022.

⁹ African Development Bank. Climate Change Profile – Ghana. 2018.

¹⁰ Environmental Protection Agency. Ghana’s Fourth National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. 2020.

¹¹ Ministry of Energy, Government of Ghana. Ghana Renewable Energy Master Plan. 2019. Preprint at www.energycom.gov.gh/files/Renewable-Energy-Masterplan-February-2019.pdf

¹² Environmental Protection Agency. Ghana’s Third Biennial Update Report to United Nations Climate Change. 2021.

¹³ Republic of Ghana. Drive Electric Initiative. 2019.

¹⁴ The Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN). CTCN in Ghana: Developing a national policy on e-mobility. The Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN). 2020.

¹⁵ Values expressed in Global Warming Potentials from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4).

¹⁶ See calculations and assumptions here 1p5ndc-pathways.climateanalytics.org/methodology/#gha-ndc

¹⁷ The NDC articulates that emissions from selected extractive and manufacturing industries have not been included. Justification for this can be found on Page 14 of Ghana’s updated NDC.