In its updated 2021 NDC, Ghana has committed to an unconditional target of an absolute emissions reduction of 24.6 MtCO₂e by 2030 (incl. LULUCF), and a conditional target of reducing 64 MtCO₂e (incl. LULUCF) by 2030. Excluding LULUCF, the conditional target translates to 2030 emissions levels of around 42 MtCO₂e/yr or an increase in emissions of 32% above 2015 levels, less ambitious than its previous NDC.,,,
With international support, Ghana could reduce its domestic emissions pathway and close the gap between its fair share level and a 1.5°C aligned domestic emissions level. Paris Agreement compatible pathways show emissions levels of 19-27 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 or a reduction of 14-39% below 2015 levels by 2030, excluding LULUCF emissions. Ghana’s NDC target will need to be strengthened in order to align with 1.5°C compatible pathways.
Long term pathway
To date, Ghana has not articulated a long-term strategy, though in September 2022, Vice President Bawumia announced Ghana was committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2070., 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that Ghana should emit no more than 20 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 (excl. LULUCF) – a GHG emissions reduction of 37% below 2015 levels.
1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that the energy sector would need to be the first to fully decarbonise by 2050 in some scenarios. Remaining GHG emissions will largely be from the agriculture sector, alongside smaller, but nonetheless significant, contributions from the waste and industrial processes sectors.
Over the long-term, efforts to reduce LULUCF emissions, including expanding and accelerating Ghana’s commitments to limit deforestation and afforest degraded lands, may create effective national carbon sinks, which can be driven by reducing traditional biomass consumption.