Power sector in 2030
Ethiopia’s power sector is over 95% renewable. The power sector has the potential to be fully reliant on renewable sources by 2030. The commissioning of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) hydro plant, with estimated capacity of 5600 MW, is estimated to increase renewable energy share (hydropower) to almost 100% by 2030 compared to the >95% current share of renewable energy in the power sector when considering energy imports for electricity supply.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Ethiopia’s power sector is almost entirely reliant on renewable energy with a close to zero carbon intensity power since 2020. This scenario may be affected by plans to include coal and nuclear in its power mix which are part of the draft National Energy Policy., The global energy monitor indicates 90 MW of coal capacity planned, which will steer emissions increase.
Additionally, nuclear installations entail high initial costs, high maintenance costs as well as management of nuclear waste, which may detract from renewable options and could result in stranded assets. If this happens, the country will have to grapple with high costs for carbon removal technologies in the power sector in the long term in order to meet its climate targets.