Power sector in 2030
Ethiopia’s power sector is over 95% renewable. The power sector has the potential to be fully reliant on renewable sources by 2030. The commissioning of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) hydro plant,2 with estimated capacity of 5600 MW, is estimated to increase renewable energy share (hydropower) to almost 100% by 2030 compared to the >95% current share of renewable energy in the power sector when considering energy imports for electricity supply.16
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
Ethiopia’s power sector is almost entirely reliant on renewable energy with a close to zero carbon intensity power since 2020.16 This scenario may be affected by plans to include coal and nuclear in its power mix which are part of the draft National Energy Policy.9,18 The global energy monitor indicates 90 MW of coal capacity planned, which will steer emissions increase.20
Additionally, nuclear installations entail high initial costs, high maintenance costs as well as management of nuclear waste, which may detract from renewable options and could result in stranded assets. If this happens, the country will have to grapple with high costs for carbon removal technologies in the power sector in the long term in order to meet its climate targets.19
1 Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020).
2 GERD Coordination Office. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). (2020).
3 Government of Ethiopia. Climate-Resilient Green Economy Strategy. (2011).
4 Government of Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy National Adaptation Plan. (2019).
5 IEA. Ethiopia: Key Energy Statistics. (2018).
6 Climate Action Tracker. Ethiopia | Climate Action Target Update Tracker. (2020).
7 Government of Ethiopia. Summary of Ethiopia’s Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). (2020).
8 Government of Ethiopia. The Second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II) Midterm Review Report. (2018).
9 Government of Ethiopia. Draft National Energy Policy (March 2021). (Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Energy, 2021).
10 World Nuclear News. Ethiopia, Russia extend cooperation in nuclear energy. Nuclear Policies. (2019).
11 Government of Ethiopia. Ethiopia 2030: The Pathway to Prosperity Ten Years Perspective Development Plan (2021-2030). (2020).
12 Government of Ethiopia. Growth and Transformation Plan II (GTP II). (2016).
13 National Green Development. Stats – National Green Development. (2021).
14 Beyene, G. E., Kumie, A., Edwards, R. & Troncoso, K. Opportunities for transition to clean household energy in Ethiopia Application of the WHO Household Energy Assessment Rapid Tool (HEART). (2018).
15 N Scott, T Jones & S Batchelor. Ethiopia; Cooking transitions: An analysis of Multi-Tier Framework Data for insights into transitions to modern energy cooking. (2020).
16 Ethiopian Electric Power. Power Generation. (2020).
17 Government of Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy National Adaptation Plan. (2019).
18 IEA. Ethiopia coal demand and production by scenario, 2010-2040. (2020).
19 IPCC. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2007).
20 Global Energy Monitor. Global Coal Plant Tracker Database (July). Global Energy Monitor. (2020).
21 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
22 NDC indicates that forestry covers land and managed soils.
23 For example, it is difficult to prepare Injera, Ethiopia’s staple on a gas or electric cooker.
24 A review of GTPII is still underway. This will shed light on the current situation after the end of the GTP II in 2020 and provide a basis for GTPIII or a successor framework.
Ethiopiaʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Renewables incl. biomass
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
Ethiopiaʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- 100%RE
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Ethiopia
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 0 | 0 | 0 | −10 to 0 |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Ethiopiaʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Ethiopia on the order of USD 1.4 to 5.3 billion by 2030 and 1.2 to 9.3 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. In fact Ethiopia’s policies aim at 100% electricity access for all by 2030. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.