Power sector in 2030
Paris Agreement compatible pathways require Egypt’s power sector carbon intensity to decline from 500 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 20–80 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. This could be achieved through a sharp reduction of fossil fuels in the power sector from 91% in 2019 to 5–23% by 2030. This would need to be supported by a high uptake of renewable energy (including variable renewables, hydro and biomass) in the power mix from a share of 9% in 2019 to 77–95% by 2030.
As part of the Egypt’s Sustainable Development Strategy, the Egypt Vision 2030 targets a 35% share of renewable generation in the power mix by 2030 (16% solar, 14% wind and 5% hydroelectric) and the Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) targets 42% renewable energy generation by 2035., At COP26, the government announced they are aiming to achieve this target five years earlier; however, Egypt does not appear on track to meet the ISES interim target of 20% renewable generation by 2022. Considering Egypt’s ambition to serve as a regional energy hub exporting electricity to other African countries and Europe, and these countries’ increasing appetite for renewable energy, Egypt would benefit from an expansion of renewables in their power sector.,
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
1.5˚C compatible pathways show that Egypt’s power sector reaches a fully decarbonised power sector between around 2035 and 2040. By mid-century, power sector carbon intensity would need to decline to zero to -20 gCO₂/kWh. This will be driven by the phase out of fossil fuels and rapid uptake of renewables, reaching 100% of the power mix by 2050, in some pathways already by 2040.
Egypt does not have plans to phase out fossil fuels. The ISES and Egypt Vision 2030 both target an expansion of coal in the power sector; however, all recent plans for new coal plants have been cancelled.,, Egypt also does not have a long-term renewable energy target past 2035.