Power sector in 2030
Paris Agreement compatible pathways require Egypt’s power sector carbon intensity to decline from 500 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to 20–80 gCO₂/kWh by 2030. This could be achieved through a sharp reduction of fossil fuels in the power sector from 91% in 2019 to 5–23% by 2030. This would need to be supported by a high uptake of renewable energy (including variable renewables, hydro and biomass) in the power mix from a share of 9% in 2019 to 77–95% by 2030.
As part of the Egypt’s Sustainable Development Strategy, the Egypt Vision 2030 targets a 35% share of renewable generation in the power mix by 2030 (16% solar, 14% wind and 5% hydroelectric) and the Integrated Sustainable Energy Strategy (ISES) targets 42% renewable energy generation by 2035.7,9 At COP26, the government announced they are aiming to achieve this target five years earlier; however, Egypt does not appear on track to meet the ISES interim target of 20% renewable generation by 2022. Considering Egypt’s ambition to serve as a regional energy hub exporting electricity to other African countries and Europe, and these countries’ increasing appetite for renewable energy, Egypt would benefit from an expansion of renewables in their power sector.5,6
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
1.5˚C compatible pathways show that Egypt’s power sector reaches a fully decarbonised power sector between around 2035 and 2040. By mid-century, power sector carbon intensity would need to decline to zero to -20 gCO₂/kWh.13 This will be driven by the phase out of fossil fuels and rapid uptake of renewables, reaching 100% of the power mix by 2050, in some pathways already by 2040.
Egypt does not have plans to phase out fossil fuels. The ISES and Egypt Vision 2030 both target an expansion of coal in the power sector; however, all recent plans for new coal plants have been cancelled.7,9,10 Egypt also does not have a long-term renewable energy target past 2035.
1 Ministry of Environment. Egypt’s First Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2018).
2 Meighan, B. Egypt’s Natural Gas Crisis. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (2016).
3 IMF. World Economic Outlook Update: April 2021. (2021).
4 Fahmy, H. Will the lights stay on in Egypt? Middle East Institute. (2020).
5 European Commission. New era in EU-Egypt energy cooperation. (2018).
6 Magdy, M. Egypt in Talks Over Plan to Sell Power to Europe and Africa. Bloomberg Quint. (2020).
7 Arab Republic of Egypt. Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt Vision 2030. (2016).
8 IRENA. Renewable Energy Outlook Egypt: Executive Summary. (2018).
9 New and Renewable Energy Authority. Renewable Energy Targets.-
10 Global Energy Monitor. Map. Global Coal Plant Tracker
11 Target does not specify reference value.
12 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.
13 In some of the analysed pathways, the power sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
14 Note that the model High Energy Demand shows a slight decline in electricity consumption between 2020 and 2030 mainly due to modelling artefacts. Consistency with national context: The significant gap between the starting year of the first generation of scenarios of the IPCC SR1.5 used in this analysis and the present has at times led to distortions when downscaling these scenarios to the national level.
15 WRI‘s report, State of Climate Action, 2021.
Egyptʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Egyptʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- 100%RE
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Egypt
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 500 | 20 to 80 | −10 to 0 | −20 to 0 | 2036 to 2039 |
Relative to reference year in % | −95 to −83% | −102 to −100% | −104 to −100% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 77 | 5 to 21 | 0 | 0 | 2037 to 2039 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 9 | 77 to 95 | 99 to 100 | 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 91 | 5 to 23 | 0 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Egyptʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Egypt to be on the order of USD 6 to 13 billion by 2030 and 6 to 14 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘High CDR’ scenario, which shows comparatively lower annual investments into renewables, has lower levels of electrification and at the global level relies more on carbon capture and storage and negative emissions technologies – which themselves can require high up-front costs and face sustainability constraints.