In its current NDC, Ecuador sets the target of achieving an emissions level of 61 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF in 2025, equivalent to a 20.9% reduction below a BAU scenario.1 This target is conditional on international support. A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require maximum emissions of roughly 53 MtCO₂e in 2025, and 37 MtCO₂e in 2030 equivalent to a 46% reduction below 2015 levels. If Ecuador were to follow its trajectory towards 63 MtCO₂e in 2025 as set out in the NDC, the country would need to almost halve the remaining emissions in 5 years to be at a 1.5°C compatible emissions level in 2030.
Long term pathway
Ecuador has not yet released a long-term target, although the government is developing a long-term mitigation strategy through 2050.2 To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Ecuador’s GHG emissions would need to be around 13 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, or reduced by 81% below 2015 levels by 2050. Agriculture will be the major remaining emitter beyond 2050, with a smaller share of non-CO₂ GHG emissions from the waste and industry sectors. If the power sector was 100% renewables-based and the country reduced significantly the fossil fuel use in transport, there would be no need for carbon removals to get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway.
1 Ministerio del Ambiente del Ecuador. Primera Contribución Determinada a nivel nacional para el Acuerdo de París bajo la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidad sobre Cambio Climático. Gobierno de Ecuador 1–44. 2019.
4MERNNR. Plan Maestro de Electricidad 2019-2027. MERNNR Ministerio de Energía y Recursos No RenovablesMinisterio de Energía y Recursos No Renovables 390. 2019.
5 Ministerio del Ambiente (Ecuador). Primer Informe Bienal de Actualización de Ecuador. 2016.
6 Meta en Ecuador para depender menos del petróleo aún no se alcanza. El Universo. 2019.
7 Gobierno de Ecuador. Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático del Ecuador 2012-2025. vol. 148. 2012.
To be in line with the 1.5°C goal, Ecuador’s total GHG emissions should not be more than 37 MtCO₂e by 2030. However, the government’s conditional NDC target is to be at 63 MtCO₂e emissions in 2025, a level almost 50% higher than the 1.5°C compatible pathway target for 2030.
To achieve a 1.5°C compatible 2030 emissions level, Ecuador would have to rapidly ramp up the share of renewable energy in total primary energy supply (TPES). Illustrative pathways indicate that at least 20% of TPES would need to be produced by non-biomass renewable sources by 2030. By 2050, the share of renewables should be at least 61%. Accomplishing this will require a rapid shift away from fossil fuel-based transport towards electrification and prioritising the use of non-hydro renewables in order to phase out gas and fuel oil in the power sector.
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Ecuador. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.