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Ecuador Ambition gap

What is Ecuadorʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

1.5°C compatible pathways

In its current NDC, Ecuador sets the target of achieving an emissions level of 61 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF in 2025, equivalent to a 20.9% reduction below a BAU scenario.1 This target is conditional on international support. A 1.5°C compatible pathway would require maximum emissions of roughly 53 MtCO₂e in 2025, and 37 MtCO₂e in 2030 equivalent to a 46% reduction below 2015 levels. If Ecuador were to follow its trajectory towards 63 MtCO₂e in 2025 as set out in the NDC, the country would need to almost halve the remaining emissions in 5 years to be at a 1.5°C compatible emissions level in 2030.

Long term pathway

Ecuador has not yet released a long-term target, although the government is developing a long-term mitigation strategy through 2050.2 To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Ecuador’s GHG emissions would need to be around 13 MtCO₂e excluding LULUCF, or reduced by 81% below 2015 levels by 2050. Agriculture will be the major remaining emitter beyond 2050, with a smaller share of non-CO₂ GHG emissions from the waste and industry sectors. If the power sector was 100% renewables-based and the country reduced significantly the fossil fuel use in transport, there would be no need for carbon removals to get onto a 1.5°C compatible pathway.

1 Ministerio del Ambiente del Ecuador. Primera Contribución Determinada a nivel nacional para el Acuerdo de París bajo la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidad sobre Cambio Climático. Gobierno de Ecuador 1–44. 2019.

2 Plan Nacional de Mitigación del Cambio Climático (PLANMICC). Climaton.ec. 2021.

3 International Energy Agency (IEA). IEA Country Report: Ecuador. 2020.

4 MERNNR. Plan Maestro de Electricidad 2019-2027. MERNNR Ministerio de Energía y Recursos No RenovablesMinisterio de Energía y Recursos No Renovables 390. 2019.

5 Ministerio del Ambiente (Ecuador). Primer Informe Bienal de Actualización de Ecuador. 2016.

6 Meta en Ecuador para depender menos del petróleo aún no se alcanza. El Universo. 2019.

7 Gobierno de Ecuador. Estrategia Nacional de Cambio Climático del Ecuador 2012-2025. vol. 148. 2012.

8 Ministerio de Energía y Recursos Naturales No Renovables (Ecuador). MINISTERIO DE ENERGÍA INICIÓ LA ELABORACIÓN DEL PLAN ENERGÉTICO NACIONAL DEL ECUADOR PROYECTADO AL 2050. Boletín de prensa. 2021.

9 Secretaría Nacional de Planificación y Desarrollo (Ecuador). Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2017-2021-Toda una Vida. 84. 2017.

10 Ministerio de Energía y Recursos Naturales No Renovables (Ecuador). Ecuador actualiza su Plan Maestro de Electricidad para impulsar inversiones en Energías Renovables No Convencionales por cerca de USD 2.200 Millones. Boletín de Prensa. 2021.

11 Energía Estratégica. Ecuador anuncia convocatorias para construir más de 1000 MW de energías renovables. Energía Estratégica. 2021.

12 Alvarado, P. Plan de electricidad busca captar inversiones por cerca de USD 2 200 millones. El Comercio. 2021.

13 Cristina, P. M. A. Análisis del Plan Nacional de Eficiencia Energética en el Ecuador. REVISTA RIEMAT 5, 28–34. 2020.

14 Ministerio de Ambiente del Ecuador. Ecuador’s forest reference emission level for deforestation. REDD UNFCCC Submissions 59. 2015.

15 Ministerio del Ambiente (Ecuador). Bosques Para el Buen Vivir: Plan de Acción REDD+ Ecuador 2016-2025. 2016.

16 Ministerio del Ambiente y Agua del Ecuador. Plan de Implementación de la primera Contribución Nacional Determinada a nivel nacional del Ecuador 2020-2025 (PI-NDC). Preprint at www.ambiente.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2022/02/Plan-de-Implementacion-NDC-2020-2025.pdf (2021).

17 República del Ecuador. Primera Contribución Nacional Determinada a nivel nacional para el Acuerdo de París bajo la Convención Marco de Naciones Unidas sobre Cambio Climático. Preprint at www.ambiente.gob.ec/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2022/02/Primera-NDC-Ecuador-2020-2025.pdf (2019).

Methodology

Ecuadorʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values
Reference year
−150%−100%−50%0%19902010203020502070
Net zero GHG excl. LULUCF*
2065
Reference year
2015
1.5°C emissions level
−46%
NDC (unconditional)
+2%
NDC (conditional)
−8%
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions
2025 NDC (unconditional)
1.5°C emissions level (2030)
Ref. year 2015
69MtCO₂e/yr

Energy system transformation

To be in line with the 1.5°C goal, Ecuador’s total GHG emissions should not be more than 37 MtCO₂e by 2030. However, the government’s conditional NDC target is to be at 63 MtCO₂e emissions in 2025, a level almost 50% higher than the 1.5°C compatible pathway target for 2030.

To achieve a 1.5°C compatible 2030 emissions level, Ecuador would have to rapidly ramp up the share of renewable energy in total primary energy supply (TPES). Illustrative pathways indicate that at least 20% of TPES would need to be produced by non-biomass renewable sources by 2030. By 2050, the share of renewables should be at least 61%. Accomplishing this will require a rapid shift away from fossil fuel-based transport towards electrification and prioritising the use of non-hydro renewables in order to phase out gas and fuel oil in the power sector.

Methodology

Ecuadorʼs primary energy mix

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
Low energy demand
20192030204020501 0001 500
High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
  • Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
  • Unabated fossil
  • Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
  • Renewables incl. biomass

Ecuadorʼs total CO₂ emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr

−40−200204019902010203020502070
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks

Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for Ecuador. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.

Reference year
Indicator
2015
Reference year
2019
2030
2040
2050
Year of net zero
incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR
Total GHG
Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year
69
70
37
34 to 43
22
14 to 24
13
9 to 16
2065
2056
Relative to reference year in %
−46%
−51 to −37%
−68%
−79 to −65%
−81%
−87 to −77%
Total CO₂
MtCO₂/yr
43
42
24
15 to 27
8
−3 to 13
0
−4 to 4
2051
2038 to 2064
Relative to reference year in %
−44%
−64 to −37%
−82%
−107 to −70%
−100%
−109 to −90%

Footnotes