Power sector in 2030

The DRC’s power sector is quasi emissions-free because it almost exclusively uses hydropower.
DRC’s hydropower potential is huge, estimated at 100GW.¹³ However, the country was only exploiting about 3% of this capacity in 2017.⁶ In 2017, hydroelectricity accounted for 99% of the total national production of electricity with the remaining amount provided by a mix of biofuels and waste (0.3%), other renewable energy sources (0.1%), and fossil fuels, mostly oil (0.1%).¹⁴ While the country relies heavily on hydroelectricity, this comes along with a high environmental impact and can lead to water shortages.
The country’s electricity demand is growing along with increased electrification of end-use sectors. It is important to ensure that the increasing electricity generation remains carbon-free by scaling up renewables and avoiding any introduction of fossil fuels in the power mix.

The DRC has one of the lowest access-to-electricity rates in the world at 19% in 2019.¹⁶ Access is also unequally shared between urban and rural areas, 41% and 1%, respectively.¹⁶ The government aims to increase the overall electrification rate to 32% by 2030.¹⁷ The DRC’s power system is in a poor condition due to lack of funds and technical skills required to carry out proper maintenance of equipment.¹⁸ This challenge concerns also the DRC’s larger hydropower projects and new power lines for the transmission and distribution of electricity.¹⁸

Towards a fully decarbonised power sector

The DRC’s power sector is currently quasi emissions-free. Renewable energies, almost exclusively hydropower, contributes 100% of the national power mix. This makes the DRC’s power sector already aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways. However, this could change due to the government’s ambition to reinvigorate the country’s oil sector.

The government faces the challenge of expanding electricity access and securing reliability of supply when transforming its power sector that is expected to experience more growth than any other sector.¹³ This challenge is compounded by the fact that the country’s hydroelectric production is at about one third of its total capacity and its electricity transmission network is in a poor condition.¹⁸ If these constraints are addressed, the DRC could become an electricity exporter through the Inga dam project and improve its energy security. However, relying heavily on hydropower comes along with a high environmental impact and can lead to water shortages.

In addition to investing in large scale hydropower plants, the growing demand for electricity could be met by investing in diversified renewables projects, in particular decentralised renewable energy solutions such as solar and wind. Potential for solar energy production and wind energy is estimated in the DRC to be of 70GW and 15 GW, respectively.³⁰ Therefore, renewable energy solutions offer a low-cost option to overcome grid limitations and expand electricity access to the population in rural areas. At the current stage, fossil fuels play a negligible role in the DRC’s power mix. However, following the government’s plan to exploit sixteen oil blocks, investing in gas-to-power plants would lock in a carbon intensive pathway and risk stranded assets.³¹

¹ Democratic Republic of the Congo. Contribution Déterminée à l’échelle Nationale révisée. (2021).

² African Development Bank. National Climate Change Profile: Democratic Republic of the Congo. (2018).

³ Ministère de l’Environnement et Développement Durable. Troisième Communication Nationale de la République Démocratique du Congo à la Convention Cadre sur le Changement Climatique. (2015).

⁴ African Energy Commission (AFREC). AFREC Africa Energy Balances 2019. (2019).

⁵ African Energy Commission (AFREC). Africa Energy Efficiency for the Residential Sector 2019. (2019).

⁶ United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Atlas of Africa Energy Resource. (2017).

⁷ Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC). Democratic Republic of the Congo (2019).

⁸ International Energy Agency (IEA). Data and statistics: Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018. (2022).

⁹ Radio France Internationale. RDC: l’immense enjeu et problème de l’accès à l’électricité. (2019).

¹⁰ World Bank. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2019. State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2019 (2019). doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1435-8.

¹¹ Democratic Republic of Congo. Contribution Prévue Déterminée au niveau National (CPDN). (2017).

¹² Democratic Republic of the Congo. Contribution déterminée au niveau national de la République Démocratique du Congo. (2017).

¹³ IEA. Africa Energy Outlook 2019. Preprint at (2019).

¹⁴ African Energy Commission (AFREC). AFREC Africa Energy Database. (2019).

¹⁵ Democratic Republic of Congo. Plan National Stratégique de Développement 2019-2023. (2019).

¹⁶ The World Bank. World Development Indicators database.(2019).

¹⁷ Ministère du Plan. Fiche technique sur l’énergie. (2021).

¹⁸ Kusakana, K. A Review of Energy in the Democratic Republic of Congo. in International Conference on Desalination and Renewable Energy (ICDRE) (2016).

¹⁹ Democratic Republic of Congo. Politique Nationale de l’Energie de la République Démocratique du Congo. (2022).

²⁰ International Energy Agency (IEA). Data and statistics: Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2019. (2022).

²¹ CAFI. Sustainable Consumption and Partial Substitution of Wood Energy – DRCongo. CAFI web page 1–3 (2021).

²² CAFI. New Fund to develop sustainable energy in the DRC. CAFI web page 1–3 (2020).

²³ IRENA. Democratic Republic of Congo – Energy profile. (2022).

²⁴ FONAREDD. Fonds National REDD. FONAREDD web page 1–1 (2022).

²⁵ IEA. Africa Energy Outlook 2019. (2019).

²⁶ Democratic Republic of Congo. Troisième Communication Nationale. (2014).”:https://studylibfr.com/doc/4699335/troisi%C3%A8me-communication-nationale

²⁷ The World Bank. La Banque mondiale approuve 750 millions de dollars pour soutenir la gouvernance, le transport et la connectivité numérique en République démocratique du Congo. The World Bank media web 1–4 (2022).

²⁸ Democratic Republic of Congo. Plan Directeur des Transports urbains de la ville de Kinshasa. (2019).

²⁹ FAO. (2020). République démocratique du Congo.

³⁰ Deshmukh, R., Mileva, A., & Wu, G. C. (2017). Richesses Renouvelables : Comment le solaire et l‘éolien peuvent électrifier la RDC et l’Afrique du Sud.

³¹ TV5 Monde. (2022, May). RDC: Kinshasa veut multiplier sa production de pétrole | TV5MONDE – Informations.

³² The assessment was made based on Figure 2 provided in DRC‘s 2021 NDC document.

³³ See assumptions

³⁴ Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

³⁵ Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account. To note that the emissions range by 2050 is very broad due to high uncertainties in the assessed models.