Colombia’s transport emissions are significant and have been increasing since the start of the century. The proposed measures encompassed in Colombia’s NDC include a target to increase the stock of electric vehicles to 600,000 by 2030. This goal is enshrined in law 1964, which proposes incentives and a requirement for improving public charging infrastructure. Other measures include modernising the freight fleet of vehicles weighing over 10.5 tonnes and that are 20 years or older, aiming to replace at least 57,000 vehicles. These measures, however, are not yet sufficient and should be strengthened, for example by aiming for 95% of passenger vehicle sales to be electric by 2030.
All scenarios analysed see a decrease in fossil fuels, with electricity, biofuels, and hydrogen all potentially playing significant roles, together making up over 90% by 2050. To ensure Colombia’s transport sector is aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, CO₂ emissions would need to fall by at least 36% below 2019 levels by 2030, reaching zero by around 2050.
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31 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
32 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
Colombiaʼs energy mix in the transport sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biofuel
- Biogas
- Biomass
- Hydrogen
- Electricity
- Heat
Colombiaʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions and shares of electricity, biofuels and hydrogen in the transport final energy demand from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Colombia
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised transport sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 31 | 18 to 20 | 6 to 9 | 1 to 3 | 2050 to 2063 |
Relative to reference year in % | −43 to −36% | −81 to −71% | −97 to −92% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 0 | 2 to 7 | 9 to 23 | 22 to 48 |
Share of biofuels Percent | 6 | 12 to 17 | 18 to 66 | 30 to 66 |
Share of hydrogen Percent | 0 | 1 to 15 | 7 to 58 | 29 to 73 |