Power sector in 2030
Colombia’s power sector already contains a large share of renewables, with hydropower supplying 71% of power produced in 2020.22 Colombia’s updated NDC includes a target of reaching 1500 MW of installed non-hydro renewable capacity by 2022, equivalent to roughly 9% of the electricity supply.23,24
However, our analysis shows that Colombia would need to reach close to 100% renewable energy in the power generation mix by 2030 to decarbonise in line with the 1.5°C temperature limit. This indicates a need for greater ambition on the scaling up of renewable power in Colombia.
Furthermore, coal, which currently plays a minor role in the power mix, would need to be phased out of the power sector by around 2025 and gas between 2028 and 2033.
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
The carbon intensity of Colombia’s power sector will need to be reduced from 190 gCO₂/kWh in 2019 to be fully decarbonised by 2035 at the latest. This appears to be feasible for a country already benefitting from around 70% renewable energy in its power mix.32
Some scenarios show the power sector in Colombia reaching zero CO₂ emissions by 2025. This follows a scenario relying primarily on the aggressive and exclusive scaling up of renewable power, without the use of negative emissions technologies.
Given the uncertainties associated with the efficacy and financial viability of negative emissions technologies and the continued damage resulting from climate variability under slower emissions cuts, implementing renewable power as quickly and broadly as possible in the power sector offers an opportunity to limit warming to 1.5°C.
1 Gobierno de Colombia- IDEAM. Segundo Reporte Bienal de Actualización- Informe de Inventario Nacional de GEI de Colombia. 180 (2019).
2 Editor. Colombian coal exports. The Coal Hub (2021).
3 U.S. Energy Information Administration. Colombia. U.S. Energy Information Administration (2019).
4 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).
5 IRENA. Energy Profile: Colombia. International Renewable Energy Agency_. 2019.
6 OEC. Colombia Country profile. Country economic profile (2021).
7 Ministerio de Minas y Energia & UPME. Balance energetico colombiano. (2022).
8 Bnamericas. Colombia presenta plan de expansion energetica a largo plazo. Bnamericas (2021).
9 IRENA. Scaling Up Renewable Energy Investment in Colombia. (2020).
10 IRENA. Renewable energy auctions in Colombia: Context, design and results. International Renewable Energy Agency. (2021).
11 Ministerio de Minas y Energia. Nueva Subasta de Energias Renovables en Colombia . (2021).
12 IEA. Colombia Country Profile: Total energy supply (TES) by source, 1990-2018. (2018).
13 Groot, K. de, Vega, C. B.- & Juarez-Lucas, A. Turning the Tide: Improving Water Security for Recovery and Sustainable Growth in Colombia. World Bank 36 (2020).
14 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Colombia. Climate Action Tracker (2020).
15 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).
16 MinMinas & Gobierno de Colombia. Plan Integral de Gestión del Cambio Climático / Sector Minero Energético. (2018).
17 Gobierno de Colombia- MinAmbiente. Estrategia Nacional de Movilidad Eléctrica. (2019).
18 Ministerio de Vivienda Colombia. Resolución 0549 del 10 Julio de 2015. 1–10 Preprint at ismd.com.co/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Resoluci%C3%B3n-549-de-2015.pdf (2015).
19 Ministerio de Vivienda Colombia. PLAN INTEGRAL DE GESTIÓN DEL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO SECTORIAL: Sectora de Vivienda, Ciudad y Territorio. (2020).
20 Gobierno de Colombia. Ley de Accion Climatica N°2169/2021. (2021).
21 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).
22 Climate Transparency. CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT: COLOMBIA’S CLIMATE ACTION AND RESPONSES TO THE COVID-19 CRISIS. (2020).
23 Sánchez Molina, P. Colombia ratifica su intención de alcanzar 1.500 MW renovables instalados en 2022. PV Magazine Latin America (2019).
24 Volcovici, V. Latin America pledges 70% renewable energy, surpassing EU: Colombia minister. Reuters (2019).
25 Gobierno de Colombia. Hoja de Ruta Nacional de edificaciones Neto Cero Carbono. (2022).
26 Guerra, E. & Guillén, J. Leyes de Eficiencia Energética en Latinoamérica y el Caribe. (2021).
27 Gütschow, J. et al. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. Earth System Science Data vol. 8 (2016).
28 IDEAM Government of Colombia. TERCER INFORME BIENAL DE ACTUALIZACIÓN DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE COLOMBIA. (2021). www.cancilleria.gov.co/cambio-climatico-0
29 IDEAM, F. N. P. M. D. C. Third Biennial Update Report of Colombia BUR3. (2021).
30 Ministerio de Energia. Plan Energetico Nacional 2020-2050. (2019).
31 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
32 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
Colombiaʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Colombiaʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- 100%RE
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Colombia
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 190 | 0 to 30 | 0 | −10 to 0 | 2027 to 2035 |
Relative to reference year in % | −99 to −86% | −100% | −106 to −102% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 10 | 0 to 1 | 0 | 0 | 2025 |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 16 | 1 to 2 | 0 | 0 | 2028 to 2033 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 70 | 96 to 99 | 100 | 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 30 | 1 to 4 | 0 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Colombiaʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Colombia to be on the order of USD 3 to 7 billion by 2030 and USD 5 to 15 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors, growing energy demand, and expansion of electricity access. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies,of which the latter can require high up-front investments.