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Colombia Sectors

What is Colombiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions from the industry sector (energy-related and process emissions) represent around 18% of Colombia’s total GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, and have increased by 140% between 1990 and 2019.27,28 Industrial processes in mineral industries are the main source of emissions.29 Currently, energy demand in industry is dominated by fossil fuels (54% coal/gas/oil) and biomass (21%).30 Colombia’s industry sector goals include reducing the consumption of fossil fuels in the cement industry by 15% through the use of waste and other by-products.29

To align with 1.5°C pathways, Colombia’s direct industry CO₂emissions would need to fall by 48-57% below 2019 levels by 2030.

The derived 1.5°C compatible pathways show a wide range of decarbonisation options for the sector. Electricity’s share of final energy demand would need to increase to about 40% by 2030 and to about 70% by 2050, with the share of electricity, biomass and hydrogen reaching between 78-98% by 2040.

Several scenarios show process emissions remaining high across the following decades, which reflects the relative difficulty in reducing these emissions compared with other sectors. Technological advancements may enable these to be further reduced, and any residual process emissions will need to be abated through the use of negative emissions technologies and efforts.

1 Gobierno de Colombia- IDEAM. Segundo Reporte Bienal de Actualización- Informe de Inventario Nacional de GEI de Colombia. 180 (2019).

2 Editor. Colombian coal exports. The Coal Hub (2021).

3 U.S. Energy Information Administration. Colombia. U.S. Energy Information Administration (2019).

4 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).

5 IRENA. Energy Profile: Colombia. International Renewable Energy Agency_. 2019.

6 OEC. Colombia Country profile. Country economic profile (2021).

7 Ministerio de Minas y Energia & UPME. Balance energetico colombiano. (2022).

8 Bnamericas. Colombia presenta plan de expansion energetica a largo plazo. Bnamericas (2021).

9 IRENA. Scaling Up Renewable Energy Investment in Colombia. (2020).

10 IRENA. Renewable energy auctions in Colombia: Context, design and results. International Renewable Energy Agency. (2021).

11 Ministerio de Minas y Energia. Nueva Subasta de Energias Renovables en Colombia . (2021).

12 IEA. Colombia Country Profile: Total energy supply (TES) by source, 1990-2018. (2018).

13 Groot, K. de, Vega, C. B.- & Juarez-Lucas, A. Turning the Tide: Improving Water Security for Recovery and Sustainable Growth in Colombia. World Bank 36 (2020).

14 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Colombia. Climate Action Tracker (2020).

15 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).

16 MinMinas & Gobierno de Colombia. Plan Integral de Gestión del Cambio Climático / Sector Minero Energético. (2018).

17 Gobierno de Colombia- MinAmbiente. Estrategia Nacional de Movilidad Eléctrica. (2019).

18 Ministerio de Vivienda Colombia. Resolución 0549 del 10 Julio de 2015. 1–10 Preprint at ismd.com.co/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Resoluci%C3%B3n-549-de-2015.pdf (2015).

19 Ministerio de Vivienda Colombia. PLAN INTEGRAL DE GESTIÓN DEL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO SECTORIAL: Sectora de Vivienda, Ciudad y Territorio. (2020).

20 Gobierno de Colombia. Ley de Accion Climatica N°2169/2021. (2021).

21 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).

22 Climate Transparency. CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT: COLOMBIA’S CLIMATE ACTION AND RESPONSES TO THE COVID-19 CRISIS. (2020).

23 Sánchez Molina, P. Colombia ratifica su intención de alcanzar 1.500 MW renovables instalados en 2022. PV Magazine Latin America (2019).

24 Volcovici, V. Latin America pledges 70% renewable energy, surpassing EU: Colombia minister. Reuters (2019).

25 Gobierno de Colombia. Hoja de Ruta Nacional de edificaciones Neto Cero Carbono. (2022).

26 Guerra, E. & Guillén, J. Leyes de Eficiencia Energética en Latinoamérica y el Caribe. (2021).

27 Gütschow, J. et al. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. Earth System Science Data vol. 8 (2016).

28 IDEAM Government of Colombia. TERCER INFORME BIENAL DE ACTUALIZACIÓN DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE COLOMBIA. (2021). www.cancilleria.gov.co/cambio-climatico-0

29 IDEAM, F. N. P. M. D. C. Third Biennial Update Report of Colombia BUR3. (2021).

30 Ministerio de Energia. Plan Energetico Nacional 2020-2050. (2019).

31 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

32 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Colombiaʼs energy mix in the industry sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050400600
SSP1 High CDR reliance
2019203020402050400600
Low energy demand
2019203020402050400600
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Biomass
  • Hydrogen
  • Electricity
  • Heat

Colombiaʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
0510152019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand

Colombiaʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes

MtCO₂e/yr

02468101219902010203020502070
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • Low energy demand
  • Historical emissions

1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Colombia

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised industry sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
19
6 to 10
1
0 to 1
2038
Relative to reference year in %
−67 to −48%
−97 to −95%
−100 to −97%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
25
37 to 41
58 to 64
70 to 72
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass
Percent
45
63 to 64
78 to 98
95 to 99

Footnotes