Emissions from the industry sector (energy-related and process emissions) represent around 18% of Colombia’s total GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, and have increased by 140% between 1990 and 2019.27,28 Industrial processes in mineral industries are the main source of emissions.29 Currently, energy demand in industry is dominated by fossil fuels (54% coal/gas/oil) and biomass (21%).30 Colombia’s industry sector goals include reducing the consumption of fossil fuels in the cement industry by 15% through the use of waste and other by-products.29
To align with 1.5°C pathways, Colombia’s direct industry CO₂emissions would need to fall by 48-57% below 2019 levels by 2030.
The derived 1.5°C compatible pathways show a wide range of decarbonisation options for the sector. Electricity’s share of final energy demand would need to increase to about 40% by 2030 and to about 70% by 2050, with the share of electricity, biomass and hydrogen reaching between 78-98% by 2040.
Several scenarios show process emissions remaining high across the following decades, which reflects the relative difficulty in reducing these emissions compared with other sectors. Technological advancements may enable these to be further reduced, and any residual process emissions will need to be abated through the use of negative emissions technologies and efforts.
13 Groot, K. de, Vega, C. B.- & Juarez-Lucas, A. Turning the Tide: Improving Water Security for Recovery and Sustainable Growth in Colombia. World Bank 36 (2020).
31 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
32 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
Colombiaʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
Unit
0510152019902010203020502070
Historical emissions
SSP1 High CDR reliance
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
Low energy demand
Colombiaʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
02468101219902010203020502070
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
SSP1 High CDR reliance
Low energy demand
Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Colombia