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Colombia Current situation

What is Colombiaʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Emissions profile

The largest emitting sector in the Colombian economy is energy, which accounted for 53% of total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) in 2017. This sector includes emissions from fossil fuels in energy production, as Colombia is a major exporter of coal and oil.2,3 Combustion of liquid fuels in the transport sector is the main driver of energy-related emissions, accounting for 19% of the total. Agriculture is the second largest emitter, representing 29% of total emissions.

Despite the energy sector accounting for the largest share of total emissions, Colombia’s updated NDC makes a comparatively small mitigation pledge for this sector, excluding transport, aiming to cut emissions by 11.2 MtCO₂e by 2030.4

The majority of pledged mitigation actions relate to the LULUCF sector, focusing on land restoration (17 MtCO₂e reduction by 2030) and reducing deforestation (59 MtCO₂e reduction by 2030). The agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) sectors together account for over 60% of total GHG emissions, with LULUCF accounting for around 28% of the total in 2014.1

1 Gobierno de Colombia- IDEAM. Segundo Reporte Bienal de Actualización- Informe de Inventario Nacional de GEI de Colombia. 180 (2019).

2 Editor. Colombian coal exports. The Coal Hub (2021).

3 U.S. Energy Information Administration. Colombia. U.S. Energy Information Administration (2019).

4 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).

5 IRENA. Energy Profile: Colombia. International Renewable Energy Agency_. 2019.

6 OEC. Colombia Country profile. Country economic profile (2021).

7 Ministerio de Minas y Energia & UPME. Balance energetico colombiano. (2022).

8 Bnamericas. Colombia presenta plan de expansion energetica a largo plazo. Bnamericas (2021).

9 IRENA. Scaling Up Renewable Energy Investment in Colombia. (2020).

10 IRENA. Renewable energy auctions in Colombia: Context, design and results. International Renewable Energy Agency. (2021).

11 Ministerio de Minas y Energia. Nueva Subasta de Energias Renovables en Colombia . (2021).

12 IEA. Colombia Country Profile: Total energy supply (TES) by source, 1990-2018. (2018).

13 Groot, K. de, Vega, C. B.- & Juarez-Lucas, A. Turning the Tide: Improving Water Security for Recovery and Sustainable Growth in Colombia. World Bank 36 (2020).

14 Climate Action Tracker. Climate Target Update Tracker: Colombia. Climate Action Tracker (2020).

15 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).

16 MinMinas & Gobierno de Colombia. Plan Integral de Gestión del Cambio Climático / Sector Minero Energético. (2018).

17 Gobierno de Colombia- MinAmbiente. Estrategia Nacional de Movilidad Eléctrica. (2019).

18 Ministerio de Vivienda Colombia. Resolución 0549 del 10 Julio de 2015. 1–10 Preprint at ismd.com.co/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Resoluci%C3%B3n-549-de-2015.pdf (2015).

19 Ministerio de Vivienda Colombia. PLAN INTEGRAL DE GESTIÓN DEL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO SECTORIAL: Sectora de Vivienda, Ciudad y Territorio. (2020).

20 Gobierno de Colombia. Ley de Accion Climatica N°2169/2021. (2021).

21 Gobierno de Colombia. Contribución Prevista Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República de Colombia. (2020).

22 Climate Transparency. CLIMATE TRANSPARENCY REPORT: COLOMBIA’S CLIMATE ACTION AND RESPONSES TO THE COVID-19 CRISIS. (2020).

23 Sánchez Molina, P. Colombia ratifica su intención de alcanzar 1.500 MW renovables instalados en 2022. PV Magazine Latin America (2019).

24 Volcovici, V. Latin America pledges 70% renewable energy, surpassing EU: Colombia minister. Reuters (2019).

25 Gobierno de Colombia. Hoja de Ruta Nacional de edificaciones Neto Cero Carbono. (2022).

26 Guerra, E. & Guillén, J. Leyes de Eficiencia Energética en Latinoamérica y el Caribe. (2021).

27 Gütschow, J. et al. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series. Earth System Science Data vol. 8 (2016).

28 IDEAM Government of Colombia. TERCER INFORME BIENAL DE ACTUALIZACIÓN DE CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO DE COLOMBIA. (2021). www.cancilleria.gov.co/cambio-climatico-0

29 IDEAM, F. N. P. M. D. C. Third Biennial Update Report of Colombia BUR3. (2021).

30 Ministerio de Energia. Plan Energetico Nacional 2020-2050. (2019).

31 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

32 In some of the analysed pathways, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Colombiaʼs current GHG emissions

MtCO₂e/yr

Displayed values

By sector

  • Transport
  • Industry (energy use)
  • Other
  • Power
  • Buildings
  • Fugitive emissions
  • Agriculture
  • Waste
  • Industry (processes)
  • LULUCF
Energy (53%)0

By gas

  • CO₂
  • CH₄
  • N₂O
  • Other
00

Sectors by gas

Energy
085%0
Agriculture
00
Industry (processes)
071%0

Energy system

Colombia’s energy sector still relies on fossil fuels, with oil, natural gas and coal accounting for approximately 37%, 35% and 10% of total primary energy in 2019, respectively.5 Hydropower, biofuels, and waste together account for the remaining 17%. Solar and wind play a marginal role, with a share of less than 0.1% in the energy mix.

Colombia is an oil, gas, and coal producer and a major fossil fuel exporter, which is an important source of revenue.22 In 2020, coal accounted for 13% of total exports. Coal plays a minor role in the power mix – at 6% of generation in 2020, but Colombia plans to expand its coal power generation capacity with an additional 1.6 GW in its pipeline.6-8

The country has the goal of adding an additional 1500 MW in renewable capacity by 2022.9 Since 2019, Colombia has had three renewable energy auctions to promote the use of non-hydro renewable energy in its grid. As a result of the latest auction, 11 new wind and solar generation projects were awarded, which will add 796 MW of installed capacity to the grid.10,11,14 Targets for non-hydro renewable power generation are particularly important, given that over 70% of Colombia’s power is already sourced from hydroelectricity, yet its hydrological resources are forecast to become much more variable and vulnerable due to climate change.12,13

Targets and commitments

Economy-wide targets

Target type

Fixed level target

NDC target

Unconditional NDC Target:

  • Absolute emissions limit of 167 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030 (incl. LULUCF); equivalent to a 51% reduction below BAU by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).14
  • 161 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030; equivalent to an increase of 7% above 2015 emissions by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).

Market mechanism

  • Colombia is committed to achieving its targets on national territory and exploring market mechanisms under Art.6 and REDD+ projects in addition.

Long-term target

  • Long-term strategy submitted to the UNFCCC and is legally binding by domestic law since December 2021.

Sector coverage

EnergyIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCF

Greenhouse gas coverage

CO₂CH₄NF₃HFCsN₂OSF₆

Sectoral targets

Energy

  • Mitigation measures in the energy sector with a potential of 11.2 MtCO₂e reduction by 2030 through a combination of increasing energy efficiency while reducing energy demand and fugitive emissions.15,16

Buildings

  • 100% of new buildings constructed to meet new energy efficiency standards by 2026, continuing through 2030.15,18,19

LULUCF

  • Restore 963,000 hectares of degraded forested land by 2030.15
  • Reduce net deforestation of natural forest to 0 hectares/year by 2030, through the implementation of both policy tools and cooperative and market-based measures.20
  • Colombia signed the Glasgow Leaders Declaration on Forest and Land Use at COP26.

Power

  • Reaching 1500 MW of installed non-hydro renewable capacity by 2022, equivalent to roughly 9% of the electricity supply.9

Transport

  • 600,000 electric vehicles in use by 2030.15,17
  • Modernisation of the freight vehicle fleet of more than 10.5 tonnes gross vehicle weight and more than 20 years old, for the renewal of at least 57,000 vehicles.

Waste

  • Increase capture and use of biogas from waste streams.

Agriculture

  • Increase efficiency and intensification of livestock farming through silvo-pastoral systems.15

Footnotes