China’s industry sector accounted for 49% of final energy consumption in 2019. Industrial energy consumption increased substantially between 2002-2014, before somewhat flattening out at around 42 EJ/yr. Industry emissions in China were 5.1 GtCO₂e in 2019 (about 38% of the country’s total GHG emissions in that year, excluding LULUCF). The sector’s energy use has become less emissions intensive in recent years, with a 14% reduction in gCO₂/MJ between 2009-2019. Given the industry sector’s importance to the national economy, and the ongoing initiatives put in place to both reduce industrial energy intensity and transition the sector to higher value-added manufacturing, China has realised a 48.1% reduction in carbon intensity (CO₂ per unit of GDP) in 2019 relative to 2005 levels.25,36,37
A transition towards “green and low-carbon industries” is one of the key components of China’s NDC implementation. The government has already put policies in place to direct capital to green industries such as the manufacturing of electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies and seeks to further improve industrial energy efficiency and resource utilisation.1 In addition, high emitting industries such as steel, cement, and aluminium are likely to be targeted in the expansion of the country’s ETS.4,38
A 1.5°C compatible pathway for China’s industry sector would see energy-related emissions, which were 3124 MtCO₂ in 2019, decrease 71-78% by 2030 and reach zero between 2040 and 2050. This could be driven by increased sectoral electrification and the introduction of hydrogen as an energy carrier and feedstock. Electricity’s share of industrial energy use would reach 72% by 2050. The sector’s emissions intensity could consequently decline by roughly 60% from 2019 to 2030. As this is a much greater decline than the 14% between 2009-2019, increased efforts in energy efficiency and energy transition should be undertaken in the sector.
Similarly, industry process emissions would need to rapidly decline. Some analysed pathways show that emissions should have already peaked in 2020, reaching 1990 levels by 2030 and close to zero by 2050.
23 World Resources Institute. Accelerating the Net-Zero Transition: Strategic Action for China’s 14th Five-Year Plan. 2020. doi:https://doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.20.00018.
28 Yu, Y. Renewable Energy in China’s 14th Five-Year Plan: Five Changes. Energy Iceberg. 2021.
29 Hu, Y. & Cheng, H. The urgency of assessing the greenhouse gas budgets of hydroelectric reservoirs in China. Nat. Clim. Chang.3, 708–712. 2013.
30 Li, S., Zhang, Q., Bush, R. T. & Sullivan, L. A. Methane and CO2 emissions from China’s hydroelectric reservoirs: a new quantitative synthesis. Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res.22, 5325–5339. 2015.
31 Xie, X., Jiang, X., Zhang, T. & Huang, Z. Regional water footprints assessment for hydroelectricity generation in China. Renew. Energy138, 316–325. 2019.
32 Yuefang, D. & Steil, S. China Three Gorges Project resettlement: Policy, planning and implementation. J. Refug. Stud.16, 422–434. 2003.
33 Lewis, C. China’s Great Dam Boom: A Major Assult on Its Rivers. Yale Environment 360. 2013.
34 Yu, Y. China’s 14th Five-Year Plan for Power Industries (2): No Plans for Wind, Solar & Hydro? Energy Iceberg. 2020.
38 China Dialogue. National carbon market expansion may be delayed to 2023. China Dialogue. 2022.
39 The assessment of GDP carbon intensity follows from that conducted in previous analysis but here we have updated data on historical carbon emissions (using the PRIMAP 2021 database), GDP (using Chinese Statistical Yearbook 2021), and GDP growth projections (from World Bank). The GDP growth rate from 2025-2030 is assumed to be 5% p.a.
40 If only covering CO₂, the target would lead to around 2050 MtCO₂e p.a. in 2060 (excluding LULUCF) or emissions reductions of around 75% below 2005 levels. If the target were to cover all GHG emissions, 2060 emissions would be around 600 MtCO₂e p.a. (excluding LULUCF), or around 92% below 2005 levels.3 The 0.1°C of additional warming by 2100 would be a result of the difference in cumulative emissions between an emissions pathway which follow a carbon neutrality target (leading to greater cumulative emissions) versus a GHG neutrality target (leading to less cumulative emissions).
41 Includes electricity and hydrogen. For it to be zero emissions, it would need to be produced out of renewable energies only.
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for China