Chile’s conditional NDC targets 90–95 MtCO2e/yr by 2030 (14-18% below 2016 values). To be in line with a 1.5°C pathway, Chile’s emissions should be close to 64 MtCO2e (41% below 2016 levels) by 2030. The gap between Chile’s target and 1.5°C compatible pathway is 26 MtCO2 e or an extra 24% reduction below the 2016 reference year.
To be on track with 1.5°C pathways assessed here, Chile would need to reduce GHG emissions to 52–71 MtCO2e/yr by 2030, which is 36–53% below 2016 levels when excluding LULUCF sinks. In all scenarios, GHG emissions should have peaked by 2020 at the latest. However, Chile is aiming to peak emissions in 2025.
Steeper GHG emissions reductions are required to be aligned with 1.5°C pathways. Some of the most effective measures for rapid emission reductions would be more aggressive substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy and earlier coal and gas phase-out dates.
Long term pathway
The 1.5°C pathways assessed here show that Chile would need to reduce emissions to between 8–20 MtCO₂e by 2050. Chile has set a goal of achieving net zero GHG emissions by 2050, relying on an estimated land carbon sink of -65 MtCO₂e/yr. The assessed pathways show that the remaining emissions in 2050 come mainly from agriculture and waste and would need to be compensated through the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches, including reforestation/afforestation.