Canada’s emissions in 2017 were estimated at 715 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF). Emissions in 2020 are estimated to drop to approximately 606-633 MtCO₂e (excl. LULUCF), with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.3
In 2017, the power, transport and buildings sectors represented the largest shares of total emissions, accounting for around 28%, 25% and 13% of emissions respectively. Agriculture and industry processes each accounted for 8% of total emissions. Data revisions in Canada’s 2021 National Inventory Report indicate LULUCF emissions in recent years have been an emission source, rather than a sink as previously reported, and that these emissions have been on an upward trend.8
Canada’s 2016 Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change forms the basis for their targets and submissions in their NDC.9 In 2020, Canada adopted a new plan, “A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy”, to reach the 2030 NDC target and 2050 net zero target.10
4 Government of Canada. Regulations Amending the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations. in Canada Gazette Part II, Vol. 152, No. 25, Regulation SOR/2018-263 (2018).
6 Canada Ministry of the Environment. Bill C-12: An Act respecting transparency and accountability in Canada’s efforts to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050. (House of Commons of Canada, 2020).
7 Government of Canada. Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. in Bill C-12 (2021).
19 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
Canadaʼs current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
Displayed values
By sector
Power
Transport
Buildings
Industry (energy use)
Fugitive emissions
Other
Agriculture
Industry (processes)
Waste
LULUCF
By gas
CO₂
CH₄
N₂O
Other
080%0
Sectors by gas
Energy
091%0
Agriculture
00
Industry (processes)
074%0
Energy system
Canada’s primary energy use is highly reliant on gas and oil, contributing 35% and 34% respectively in 2017. The draft Clean Fuel Standard, which is expected to be finalised in late 2021, would require liquid fuel suppliers to cut carbon intensity of fuels they sell over time.11 The remaining energy mix is comprised of 17% renewables including biomass, 9% nuclear, and 6% coal. Current plans indicate that Canada intends to continue production of natural gas, particularly liquefied natural gas for export.12,13
In 2017, roughly 67% of electricity was generated by renewables, with the majority supplied by hydropower, and an additional 15% supplied by nuclear.14 Energy modelling by the Canada Energy Regulator show an increase in the share of renewable and nuclear generation to a total of 90% by 2050 in their Evolving Scenario that assumes increasing climate action.13 Coal, oil and gas account for 9%, 1% and 8% of present day generation, respectively, though Canada aims to phase out unabated coal by 2030.15
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Base year emissions target
NDC target
40-45% below 2005 by 2030 (incl. LULUCF).
36-41% below 2005 by 2030 (excl. LULUCF).
Market mechanism
Canada has not officially submitted its updated NDC target to the UNFCCC. Whether and the extent to which it intends to rely on market mechanisms to meet that target is unclear. In its original NDC submission, it said that it would explore the use of such mechanisms, depending on agreement of the international rulebook (which remains outstanding).
Draft regulations on the creation of a voluntary federal offset scheme for industries not covered by carbon pricing (e.g. waste, agriculture and forestry).
40-45% reduction in methane emissions from oil and gas by 2025 compared to 2012 levels, with plans to establish new targets for 2030 and 2035.10,16
Buildings
Develop “net-zero ready” building codes to be adopted by 2030 for new buildings.
Waste
Draft regulations on the creation of a voluntary federal offset scheme for industries not covered by carbon pricing (e.g. waste, agriculture and forestry).