The industry sector’s share of total final energy consumption in Botswana has been declining over the past decade, from 24% of total final consumption in 2009 to 15% in 2019. However, emissions from industrial processes have continued to grow steadily.³ Under a Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, the Government of Botswana projects emissions from the IPPU sector to rise to approximately 3.4 MtCO₂e by 2029.³ According to Botswana’s First BUR, cement and soda ash production are the largest contributors to emissions in the sector.¹

To be aligned with 1.5°C compatible pathways, Botswana’s industry sector would need to decarbonise between 2039-2048, with direct CO₂ emissions reducing from 1 MtCO₂e in 2019 to 0 MtCO₂e by 2050 at the latest.

All scenarios indicate that energy-related emissions should peak around 2025-2030, followed by a gradual or steep (depending upon the scenario) decline. This decline would be primarily driven by an increase in the share of electricity in the sector’s energy supply from 29% in 2019 to 74-75% by 2050. Some scenarios also suggest that biofuels and, to a lesser extent, hydrogen, would start to replace some of the oil and coal that currently supply 70% of the industry sector’s energy. These new sources could be introduced as early as 2030-2040. To be consistent with 1.5°C pathways, the collective share of electricity, biomass, and hydrogen in the sector’s energy supply would have to increase from 29% in 2019 to 74-95% by 2050.

At 0.05 MtCO₂e in 2019, Botswana’s emissions from industrial processes are already negligible. Most scenarios suggest that these emissions will remain relatively stable at their current level until 2050, while one scenario suggests that Botswana could achieve zero process-related emissions by 2040.

To date, Botswana continues to invest significantly in coal energy. This includes awarding three coal plant generation licenses in 2020, the construction of a mine with an annual production capacity of 4.5 million tonnes, and the development of a USD 2.5 billion coal-to-liquids plant with a daily production capacity of 12,000 barrels of gasoline and diesel.^16,17 Such investments, especially in comparison to the significantly lower planned addition of renewable energy capacity, could extend the industry sector’s reliance on fossil fuels, thus hampering the sector’s decarbonisation trajectory and consistency with 1.5°C pathways.

¹ Ministry of Environment Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism. Botswana’s First Biennial Update Report (BUR) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019).

² Government of Botswana. Botswana Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. (2016).

³ Ministry of Environment Natural Resources Conservation and Tourism. Botswana’s Third National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2019).

⁴ BITC Research Department. Investment Opportunities in the Coal Sector: Investor Factsheet. (2016).

⁵ International Energy Agency. Botswana: Data Browser. International Energy Agency. (2022).

⁶ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Paris Reality Check: PRIMAP-hist. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. (2021).

⁷ Government of Botswana. National Development Plan 11. (2017).

⁸ Benza, B. Botswana’s state-owned coal miner aims to boost output by 35%. Reuters. (2021).

⁹ United Nations Environment Programme. Energy Profile: Botswana.

¹⁰ Bungane, B. Botswana grants first ever generation licenses to IPPs. ESI Africa. (2020).

¹¹ Dabla, N., Zeyi, B., Wanjiru, E. N., Fichaux, N. & Mabowe, B. Renewables Readiness Assessment: Botswana. (2021).

¹² Ministry of Mineral Resources, G. T. and E. S. National Energy Policy. (2021).

¹³ Adedoyin, A. et al. Botswana Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories for Biennial Update Report (BUR). (2016).

¹⁴ African Development Bank Group. Botswana – Botswana Renewable Energy Support Project – Project Appraisal Report. African Development Bank Group. (2022).

¹⁵ Government of the Republic of Botswana. Integrated Resource Plan for Electricity for Botswana. (2020).

¹⁶ Benza, B. India’s Jindal plans to start building Botswana coal mine in 2022. Reuters. (2021).

¹⁷ Benza, B. Botswana plans $2.5 bln coal-to-liquids plant to cut fuel imports. Reuters (2022).

¹⁸ Ministry of Transport and Communications. National Integrated Transport Policy – White Paper. (2011).-

¹⁹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

²⁰ It should also be noted that there are significant discrepancies between the base year emissions expressed in the NDC and in historical datasets. The NDC indicates 2010 emissions as 8.3 MtCO₂e, while historical datasets puts the value at 27 MtCO₂e. The NDC, however, does not account for significant sources of CH₄ emissions from the agriculture sector, and aims to realise its mitigations from the energy sector exclusively. To this end, we have interpreted the baseline indicated in the NDC as being comparable to the energy sector only, as opposed to being representative of the entire emissions baseline for 2010. The calculations provided in these sections therefore rely upon the baseline emissions indicated in the historical datasets for Botswana, as opposed to the NDC.