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Bangladesh Sectors

What is Bangladeshʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Industrial energy demand has steadily increased over the last two decades at annual rate of around 9%.16 In 2019, the industrial sector was responsible for 33% of the total final energy consumption, accounting for 44% of final electricity demand.16 To be 1.5°C compatible, share of electricity in industrial energy mix would need to reach 76-80% by 2050 from 28% in 2019. Different scenarios demonstrate a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions from the industrial sector to 2-6 MtCO₂/yr by 2050, from 25 MtCO₂/yr in 2019, mostly driven by a widespread adoption of energy efficiency measures and an increased penetration of decarbonised electricity (see our analysis of the power sector in Bangladesh).

Energy demand for the industrial sector is currently dominated by fossil fuels (i.e. 73% in 2019), mostly natural gas. All scenarios except one demonstrate a declining trend of fossil energy demand by 2030.

In 2015, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources launched Energy Efficiency and Conservation Master Plan up to 2030, outlining how to reduce the industrial sector’s energy intensity by 20% by 2030 (compared to 2013 levels). Through energy efficiency and conservation measures, it also aims to reduce the sector’s energy consumption by 20%, leading to up to a 10.5% reduction in total energy consumption.15 Additionally, the Green Transformation Fund (GTF) of Bangladesh (USD$ 200 million) finances manufacturing technology upgrades for energy and water efficiency outcomes, and was recently expanded to include all subsectors.29

1 Ministry of Environment and Forests, G. of B. Second national Communication of Bangladesh to UNFCCC. (2012).

2 FAOSTAT. Land use Total Data Bangladesh. (2021).

3 Gerretsen, I. Bangladesh scraps nine coal power plants as overseas finance dries up. Climate Home News. (2021).

4 Reuters. Bangladesh looks to cut future coal use as costs rise, Energy News, ET EnergyWorld. Energyworld.com. (2020).

5 Dhaka Tribune. State Minister: 40% of Bangladesh’s power will come from renewables by 2041 | Dhaka Tribune. (2021).

6 USAID. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector Bangladesh. (2012).

7 Statista. Bangladesh – share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product 2019. (2020).

8 Governement of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Year Book-Chapter 6 Energy. (2019).

9 Ministry of Environment, F. and C. C. of B. Third National Communication of Bangladesh to UNFCCC. (2018).

10 International Trade Administration. Bangladesh – Power and Energy. (2020).

11 Bangladesh Planning Commission. Making Vision 2041 a Reality PERSPECTIVE PLAN OF BANGLADESH 2021-2041 (2020).

12 Cabraal, A., Ward, W. A., Bogach, V. S. & Jain, A. Living in the light: The Bangladesh solar home systems story. (2021).

13 Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) 2021: Bangladesh (Updated). (2021).

14 Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)- Bangladesh. (2015).

15 SREDA. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Master Plan in Bangladesh. (2015).

16 IEA. Bangladesh – Countries & Regions. (2019).

17 Worldometer. Bangladesh Natural Gas Reserves, Production and Consumption Statistics. (2017).

18 SAARC. SAARC Energy Outlook 2030. (2018).

19 IEA. World Energy Balances 2019 (OECD and Selected Emerging Economies). (2019).

20 Huda, A. S. N., Mekhilef, S. & Ahsan, A. Biomass energy in Bangladesh: Current status and prospects. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 30, 504–517 (2014).

21 Khan, M. S. et al. Prospect Of Biofuel In Bangladesh: Bioethanol And Biodiesel Production At Local Condition. in oint Conference International Conference on Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology & International Conference on Ecology and Ecosystems (2017).

22 Rouf, M. A. & Haque, M. N. Role of Renewable Energy (Biogas and Improved Cook Stoves) for Creation of Green Jobs in Bangladesh. (2008).

23 Fisher, M. Introduction of Nuclear Power in Bangladesh Underway with IAEA Assistance. (2018).

24 BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. (2020).

25 Ministry of Power, E. and M. R. Power System Master Plan. (2016).

26 Timilsina, G. R., Pargal, S., Tsigas, M. & Sahin, S. How Much Would Bangladesh Gain from the Removal of Subsidies on Electricity and Natural Gas? (2018)..

27 Salam, R. A. et al. An Overview on Energy and Development of Energy Integration in Major South Asian Countries: The Building Sector. Energies 2020, Vol. 13, Page 5776 13, 5776 (2020).

28 Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC) 2020. (2020).

29 Green Finance Platform. Bangladesh’s Green Transformation Fund (GTF) | Green Finance Platform. (2019).

30 Daily Sun. National Budget Speech 2021-2022 (full text) | Online Version. (2021).

31 Climate Analytics. Decarbonising South and South East Asia: Shifting energy supply in South Asia and South East Asia to non-fossil fuel-based energy systems in line with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. (2019).

32 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for countries, they underestimate the feasible space for developed countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

33 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

34 At the regional level, models suggest coal-fired power to be phased out in South Asian countries by 2040.31

Bangladeshʼs energy mix in the transport sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050200300
SSP1 High CDR reliance
2019203020402050200300
Low Energy Demand
2019203020402050200300
High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
2019203020402050200300
  • Coal
  • Natural gas
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biomass
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Electricity
  • Heat
  • Hydrogen

Bangladeshʼs transport sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demands)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
5101519902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • Low Energy Demand

1.5°C compatible transport sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and direct electrification rates from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Bangladesh

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised transport sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
12
5 to 9
4 to 5
0 to 5
2048 to 2065
Relative to reference year in %
−56 to −27%
−63 to −56%
−100 to −59%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
0
4 to 9
11 to 16
21 to 24
Share of biofuels
Percent
0
1 to 2
1 to 6
2 to 12
Share of hydrogen
Percent
0
2 to 21
44 to 48
52 to 77

Footnotes