Industrial energy demand has steadily increased over the last two decades at annual rate of around 9%.16 In 2019, the industrial sector was responsible for 33% of the total final energy consumption, accounting for 44% of final electricity demand.16 To be 1.5°C compatible, the share of electricity in the industrial energy mix would need to reach 76-80% by 2050 from 28% in 2019. Different scenarios demonstrate a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions from the industrial sector to 2-6 MtCO₂/yr by 2050, from 25 MtCO₂/yr in 2019, mostly driven by a widespread adoption of energy efficiency measures and an increased penetration of decarbonised electricity (see our analysis of the power sector in Bangladesh).
Energy demand for the industrial sector is currently dominated by fossil fuels (i.e. 73% in 2019), mostly natural gas. All scenarios except one demonstrate a declining trend of fossil energy demand by 2030.
In 2015, the Ministry of Power, Energy and Mineral Resources launched Energy Efficiency and Conservation Master Plan up to 2030, outlining how to reduce the industrial sector’s energy intensity by 20% by 2030 (compared to 2013 levels). Through energy efficiency and conservation measures, it also aims to reduce the sector’s energy consumption by 20%, leading to up to a 10.5% reduction in total energy consumption.15 Additionally, the Green Transformation Fund (GTF) of Bangladesh (USD$ 200 million) finances manufacturing technology upgrades for energy and water efficiency outcomes, and was recently expanded to include all subsectors.29
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2 FAOSTAT. Land use Total Data Bangladesh. (2021).
3 Gerretsen, I. Bangladesh scraps nine coal power plants as overseas finance dries up. Climate Home News (2021).
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5 Dhaka Tribune. State Minister: 40% of Bangladesh’s power will come from renewables by 2041. Dhaka Tribune. (2021).
6 USAID. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector Bangladesh. (2012).
7 Statista. Bangladesh – share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product 2019. (2020).
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12 Cabraal, A., Ward, W. A., Bogach, V. S. & Jain, A. Living in the light: The Bangladesh solar home systems story. (2021).
13 Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) 2021-Bangladesh. (2021).
14 Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)- Bangladesh. (2015).
15 SREDA. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Master Plan in Bangladesh. (2015).
16 IEA. Bangladesh – Countries & Regions. (2019).
17 Worldometer. Bangladesh Natural Gas Reserves, Production and Consumption Statistics. (2017).
18 SAARC. SAARC Energy Outlook 2030. (2018).
19 IEA. World Energy Balances 2019 (OECD and Selected Emerging Economies). (2019).
20 Huda, A. S. N., Mekhilef, S. & Ahsan, A. Biomass energy in Bangladesh: Current status and prospects. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 30, 504–517 (2014).
21 Khan, M. S. et al. Prospect Of Biofuel In Bangladesh: Bioethanol And Biodiesel Production At Local Condition. In Joint Conference International Conference on Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology & International Conference on Ecology and Ecosystems (2017).
22 Rouf, M. A. & Haque, M. N. Role of Renewable Energy (Biogas and Improved Cook Stoves) for Creation of Green Jobs in Bangladesh. (2008).
23 Fisher, M. Introduction of Nuclear Power in Bangladesh Underway with IAEA Assistance. (2020).
24 BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. (2020).
25 Ministry of Power, E. and M. R. Power System Master Plan. (2016).
26 Timilsina, G. R., Pargal, S., Tsigas, M. & Sahin, S. How Much Would Bangladesh Gain from the Removal of Subsidies on Electricity and Natural Gas? (2018).
27 Salam, R. A. et al. An Overview on Energy and Development of Energy Integration in Major South Asian Countries: The Building Sector. Energies 2020, Vol. 13, Page 5776 13, 5776 (2020).
28 Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC) 2020. (2020).
29 Green Finance Platform. Bangladesh’s Green Transformation Fund (GTF). Green Finance Platform. (2019).
30 Kamal, M. National Budget Speech 2021-2022 (full text). [Speech transcript]. Daily Sun. (2021).
31 Climate Analytics. Decarbonising South and South East Asia: Shifting energy supply in South Asia and South East Asia to non-fossil fuel-based energy systems in line with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. (2019).
32 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for countries, they underestimate the feasible space for developed countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
33 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.
34 At the regional level, models suggest coal-fired power to be phased out in South Asian countries by 2040.31
Bangladeshʼs energy mix in the industry sector
petajoule per year
- Natural gas
- Coal
- Oil and e-fuels
- Biomass
- Biogas
- Biofuel
- Electricity
- Heat
- Hydrogen
Bangladeshʼs industry sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demand)
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
Bangladeshʼs GHG emissions from industrial processes
MtCO₂e/yr
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible industry sector benchmarks
Direct CO₂ emissions, direct electrification rates, and combined shares of electricity, hydrogen and biomass from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Bangladesh
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised industry sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct CO₂ emissions MtCO₂/yr | 25 | 12 to 19 | 3 to 9 | 2 to 6 | 2040 to 2056 |
Relative to reference year in % | −51 to −23% | −86 to −64% | −94 to −77% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of electricity Percent | 28 | 38 to 47 | 60 to 69 | 76 to 80 |
Share of electricity, hydrogren and biomass Percent | 28 | 40 to 49 | 64 to 95 | 79 to 98 |