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Bangladesh Sectors

What is Bangladeshʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

Building energy consumption in Bangladesh has been steadily increasing since 1990. Building sector in Bangladesh consumes 55% of total energy, with the residential sector accounting for 40% of electricity consumption.16,27 1.5°C compatible pathways show an increase in the share of electricity in the buildings energy mix from 23% in 2019 to 86-89% by 2050 under different scenarios. All scenarios see a rapid decline in direct CO₂ emissions from the building sector and reach zero by 2050, for some scenarios, mostly driven by an increased penetration of a decarbonised electricity (see our analysis of the power sector in Bangladesh) in the energy mix and increased energy efficiency.

Biomass is an important energy source in building energy demand particularly for cooking, where 50% of energy demand was met with biomass in 2019. All scenarios see a rapid decline in biomass demand reaching 3-22% by 2050, depending on the scenario.

In 2020, Bangladesh published its National Building Code and has laid out laws for building design and construction including energy and resource efficiency standards for the construction of new buildings.28 This code also aims to reduce the overall energy consumption in the buildings sector through energy efficient appliances. In its updated NDC Bangladesh has included the enhancement of use of energy efficient appliances in residential and commercial buildings as one of the measures to be implemented in meeting its NDC . Bangladesh aims to reduce emissions from the buildings sector by 5% and 12% (commercial and households buildings respectively) from 2030 BAU emissions level. Bangladesh has the largest solar home programme in the world, which enables 20 million homes (16% of rural population) access to electricity.12

1 Ministry of Environment and Forests, G. of B. Second national Communication of Bangladesh to UNFCCC. (2012).

2 FAOSTAT. Land use Total Data Bangladesh. (2021).

3 Gerretsen, I. Bangladesh scraps nine coal power plants as overseas finance dries up. Climate Home News. (2021).

4 Reuters. Bangladesh looks to cut future coal use as costs rise, Energy News, ET EnergyWorld. Energyworld.com. (2020).

5 Dhaka Tribune. State Minister: 40% of Bangladesh’s power will come from renewables by 2041 | Dhaka Tribune. (2021).

6 USAID. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector Bangladesh. (2012).

7 Statista. Bangladesh – share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product 2019. (2020).

8 Governement of Bangladesh. Bangladesh Year Book-Chapter 6 Energy. (2019).

9 Ministry of Environment, F. and C. C. of B. Third National Communication of Bangladesh to UNFCCC. (2018).

10 International Trade Administration. Bangladesh – Power and Energy. (2020).

11 Bangladesh Planning Commission. Making Vision 2041 a Reality PERSPECTIVE PLAN OF BANGLADESH 2021-2041 (2020).

12 Cabraal, A., Ward, W. A., Bogach, V. S. & Jain, A. Living in the light: The Bangladesh solar home systems story. (2021).

13 Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) 2021: Bangladesh (Updated). (2021).

14 Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh. Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)- Bangladesh. (2015).

15 SREDA. Energy Efficiency and Conservation Master Plan in Bangladesh. (2015).

16 IEA. Bangladesh – Countries & Regions. (2019).

17 Worldometer. Bangladesh Natural Gas Reserves, Production and Consumption Statistics. (2017).

18 SAARC. SAARC Energy Outlook 2030. (2018).

19 IEA. World Energy Balances 2019 (OECD and Selected Emerging Economies). (2019).

20 Huda, A. S. N., Mekhilef, S. & Ahsan, A. Biomass energy in Bangladesh: Current status and prospects. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 30, 504–517 (2014).

21 Khan, M. S. et al. Prospect Of Biofuel In Bangladesh: Bioethanol And Biodiesel Production At Local Condition. in oint Conference International Conference on Environmental Microbiology and Microbial Ecology & International Conference on Ecology and Ecosystems (2017).

22 Rouf, M. A. & Haque, M. N. Role of Renewable Energy (Biogas and Improved Cook Stoves) for Creation of Green Jobs in Bangladesh. (2008).

23 Fisher, M. Introduction of Nuclear Power in Bangladesh Underway with IAEA Assistance. (2018).

24 BP. Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. (2020).

25 Ministry of Power, E. and M. R. Power System Master Plan. (2016).

26 Timilsina, G. R., Pargal, S., Tsigas, M. & Sahin, S. How Much Would Bangladesh Gain from the Removal of Subsidies on Electricity and Natural Gas? (2018)..

27 Salam, R. A. et al. An Overview on Energy and Development of Energy Integration in Major South Asian Countries: The Building Sector. Energies 2020, Vol. 13, Page 5776 13, 5776 (2020).

28 Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC) 2020. (2020).

29 Green Finance Platform. Bangladesh’s Green Transformation Fund (GTF) | Green Finance Platform. (2019).

30 Daily Sun. National Budget Speech 2021-2022 (full text) | Online Version. (2021).

31 Climate Analytics. Decarbonising South and South East Asia: Shifting energy supply in South Asia and South East Asia to non-fossil fuel-based energy systems in line with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and achievement of Sustainable Development Goals. (2019).

32 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for countries, they underestimate the feasible space for developed countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.

33 Global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C tend to include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches, and often rely on rather conservative assumptions in the development of renewable energy technologies. This tends to result in greater reliance on technological CDR than if a faster transition to renewables were achieved. The scenarios available at the time of this analysis focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology, and our downscaling methods do not yet take national BECCS potentials into account.

34 At the regional level, models suggest coal-fired power to be phased out in South Asian countries by 2040.31

Bangladeshʼs energy mix in the buildings sector

petajoule per year

Scaling
SSP1 Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
SSP1 High CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
Low Energy Demand
20192030204020501 0001 500
High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
20192030204020501 0001 500
  • Coal
  • Natural gas
  • Oil and e-fuels
  • Biomass
  • Biofuel
  • Biogas
  • Electricity
  • Heat
  • Hydrogen

Bangladeshʼs buildings sector direct CO₂ emissions (of energy demands)

MtCO₂/yr

Unit
24681019902010203020502070
  • Historical emissions
  • SSP1 High CDR reliance
  • High Energy Demand - Low CDR reliance
  • SSP1 Low CDR reliance
  • Low Energy Demand

1.5°C compatible buildings sector benchmarks

Direct CO₂ emissions and direct electrification rates from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Bangladesh

Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Decarbonised buildings sector by
Direct CO₂ emissions
MtCO₂/yr
10
4 to 5
0 to 3
0
2033 to 2043
Relative to reference year in %
−58 to −49%
−98 to −65%
−100 to −99%
Indicator
2019
2030
2040
2050
Share of electricity
Percent
23
47 to 77
75 to 76
86 to 89
Share of heat
Percent
0
0 to 1
1
1
Share of hydrogen
Percent
0
0 to 1
1 to 12
1 to 12

Footnotes