Direct CO₂ emissions in the Australian buildings sector have been rising steadily since 1990, with 2019 showing a rare small year-on-year decline.5 As of 2019, electricity holds a 60% share of the buildings sector energy mix while gas has a 26% share.
Australia has a high, and increasingly rapid, uptake of rooftop solar. Recent analysis shows that the country’s residential solar share of total power capacity is around 15%, making Australia a global leader in this regard.36 The number of small-scale rooftop solar systems in Australia exceeds 3 million, generating about 7% of Australia’s total power.37 Capacity additions of small-scale solar have grown by an average 39% year on year since 2016, while the average size of rooftop solar systems increased threefold over the past decade.38
Apart from how energy is supplied, reducing total energy demand from buildings should also play a role in emission reductions in the sector. Accordingly, the Australian government has recently updated the National Construction Code to increase the energy efficiency of new residential buildings. This is in line with an earlier plan to set a trajectory for net zero energy buildings.6,7
A 1.5°C compatible pathway would see electricity’s share of the buildings sector’s energy mix increase to 78-81% by 2030 and 92-94% by 2050. This would be in conjunction with an increasing share of renewables in power generation (81-88% by 2030, 100% by 2040). With increasing renewable-based electrification in the buildings sector, and the introduction of other renewable fuels (i.e., hydrogen), fossil gas’ role in the fuel mix would decline.
1 Australian Government. Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution Communication 2022. 2022.
2 Australian Government. Australia’s Nationally Determined Contribution Communication 2021. 2021.
5IEA. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy 2021 Edition. 2021.
6 Australian Government. National construction code (NCC) updates mean energy efficiency ratings expansion for new residences. Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. 2022.
7 Australian Government. Trajectory for Low Energy Buildings. Department of Climate Change, the Environment, Energy and Water. 2019.
33 Climate Analytics. FACTSHEET 4: Australia’s Industry Inefficient and standing still. 2018.
34 Reputex. The Economic Impact of the ALP’s Powering Australia Plan. 2021.
35 Macintosh, A. et al. The ERF’s Human-induced Regeneration (HIR): What the Beare and Chambers Report Really Found and a Critique of its Method. 2022.
36 Randall, T. Clean Energy Has a Tipping Point, and 87 Countries Have Reached It. Bloomberg Green. 2022.
37 Australian Government. Australia reaches the 3 million solar milestone. Clean Energy Regulator. 2021.
38 Clean Energy Council. Clean Energy Australia Report. 2022.
39 Lewis, J. Chevron’s flagship Gorgon CCS project still failing to live up to expectations. Upstream. 2022.
40 Readfearn, G. Gas giant Chevron falls further behind on carbon capture targets for Gorgon gasfield. The Guardian. 2022.
41 Smit, R., Dia, H. & Surawski, N. The road to new fuel efficiency rules is filled with potholes. Here’s how Australia can avoid them. The Conversation. 2022.
42 The Centre for International Economics. What existing economic studies say about Australia’s cost of abatement. 2019.
47 We have derived the excl. LULUCF target from 2005 emissions level in the government’s Paris Agreement inventory and 2030 LULUCF projections in the Government projections published in 2022 of -33 MtCO₂e. Both these sources use global warming potentials (GWP) from the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). As the 1.5°C national pathway explorer uses GWPs from the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), we have converted the government’s emissions data to AR4 using an average conversion factor of 0.98 (AR4=0.98*AR5). For reference, the AR5GWP weighted 2030 emissions based on for reference, the AR5GWP numbers based on the most recent inventory the most recent inventory is 388 MtCO₂e/yr excluding LULUCF in 2030.
48 Based on Government LULUCF projections which use AR5GWP (-16 MtCO₂e/yr in 2030). Here we have applied the government LULUCF projections growth rates to the latest LULUCF historical data in the Paris Agreement Inventory, and estimate a LULUCF sink of -26 MtCO₂e/yr by 2030 using AR4GWP. Historic LULUCF emissions for 2005 have also been converted to AR4.
49 The 2022 projections including LULUCF for 2030 are for about a 32% reduction, 11% short of the Governments 43% target.
51 This is consistent with the Climate Targets Panel in Australia “fair share” reductions for Australia in 2030 of 74% from 2005 emission levels including LULUCF based on earlier Climate Change Authority work. The overall fair share contribution includes domestic emissions reductions and substantial support for emission reductions in developing countries on top of its domestic reductions.