Power sector in 2030
In 2019, fossil fuels made up 69% of Argentina’s power mix, with fossil gas comprising the largest share.15 By 2030, fossil fuel power generation in the power sector will need to be cut drastically, with a phase-out of the last remaining coal-fired generation needed imminently. Argentina would need to scale up renewables in the power sector much more rapidly to reach at least a 78% share by 2030, more than tripling its 2019 level of roughly 25%. Currently, the majority of Argentina’s renewable energy comes from large-scale hydropower.3,4 Argentina would likely need to surpass its existing target of reaching 20% renewable power generation from non-hydro renewable sources, such as wind and solar, by 2025.13,14
Towards a fully decarbonised power sector
To align with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, Argentina’s power sector would need to reach net zero emissions before 2040. This could be driven by a rapid adoption of renewable power sources through to 2030 and beyond.
Fossil gas would need to be phased out sometime in the late 2030s. However, Argentina’s power sector remains heavily dependent on domestically extracted fossil gas, with no signals from government that this will change in the future.
Pathways with delayed fossil fuel phase-out show the deployment of costly CDR approaches around 2040.
1 Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible Argentina. Segunda Contribución Determinada a Nivel Nacional de la República Argentina. UNFCCC, 2020.
2 Climate Action Tracker. Argentina. November 2022 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
3 International Energy Agency (IEA). Argentina Country Profile. 2018.
4 Climate Transparency. BROWN TO GREEN: THE G20 TRANSITION TOWARDS A NET-ZERO EMISSIONS ECONOMY: Argentina. 2019.
5 Climate Action Tracker. Argentina Current Policy Projections. July 2020 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2020.
6 Ministerio de Energía de Argentina. Plan de Acción Nacional de Energía y Cambio Climático [National Action Plan on Energy and Climate Change.] República de Argentina. 2017.
7 El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina. Ley 27191: Régimen de Fomento Nacional para el uso de Fuentes Renovables de Energía destinada a la Producción de Energía Eléctrica. Modificación Ley 26190. El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina, 2015.
8 Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible. Plan Nacional de Mitigación del sector Transporte – PNMT. 1–83 (2017).
9 Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable Argentina. Listado de medidas de mitigación y adaptación a nivel nacional (Contribución Nacional ) Febrero 2019. 2019.
10 República de Argentina. Plan de Acción Nacional de Agro y Cambio Climático. 2019.
11 Climate Action Tracker. Argentina. July 2020 update. Climate Action Tracker. 2020.
12 Congreso de la Nación Argentina. Ley 26.331: LEY DE PRESUPUESTOS MINIMOS DE PROTECCION AMBIENTAL DE LOS BOSQUES NATIVOS. El Senado y Cámara de Diputados de la Nación Argentina, 2007.
13 Bauza, V. A New Dawn: Argentina Taps Into Its Renewable Energy Potential. International Finance Corporation, 2017.
14 Caruana, M. E. C. La energía renovable en Argentina como estrategia de política energética e industrial. Probl. del Desarollo 50, 2019.
15 Secretaria de Energia. Energy Balance Argentina 2019. 2019.
16 IEA. National Program for Rational and Efficient Use of Energy. 2017.
17 Government of Argentina. Argentina. Biennial update report (BUR). BUR 4. Submission to the UNFCCC. 2021.
18 Secretaria de Energia & Presidencia de la Nación. Diagnósticos Energéticos.
19 Secretaria de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sustentable, Ministerio de Produccion y Trabajo & Presidencia de la Nación. Plan de Acción nacional de Industria y Cambio Climático. 2018.
20 Argentina Government. El Senado convirtió en ley el nuevo régimen de biocombustibles. 2021.
21 Diamante, S. Año récord: cuáles son los autos eléctricos e híbridos que lideran el boom de ventas en la Argentina. La Nacion. 2022.
22 Argentina government. Hidrogeno 2030. 2022.
23 Lanfranchi, J. Hidrógeno verde en la Argentina: están demoradas inversiones millonarias por los tiempos de la política. La Nacion. 2022.
24 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches.
25 This target is in AR4 GWP; Argentina originally expressed their NDC target in SAR GWP of 359 MtCO₂e excl. LULUCF. Mitigations targets are proportional to relevance of each sector, LULUCF emissions were deducted using the percentage of share expected for 2030.
Argentinaʼs power mix
terawatt-hour per year
- Negative emissions technologies via BECCS
- Unabated fossil
- Nuclear and/or fossil with CCS
- Renewables incl. biomass
Argentinaʼs power sector emissions and carbon intensity
MtCO₂/yr
- Historical emissions
- SSP1 High CDR reliance
- SSP1 Low CDR reliance
- High energy demand - Low CDR reliance
- Low energy demand
- 100%RE
1.5°C compatible power sector benchmarks
Carbon intensity, renewable generation share, and fossil fuel generation share from illustrative 1.5°C pathways for Argentina
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Decarbonised power sector by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carbon intensity of power gCO₂/kWh | 290 | 20 to 70 | 0 | −20 to 0 | 2034 to 2038 |
Relative to reference year in % | −95 to −76% | −100 to −99% | −105 to −100% |
Indicator | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of phase-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Share of unabated coal Percent | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2019 |
Share of unabated gas Percent | 65 | 4 to 15 | 0 to 1 | 0 | 2035 to 2039 |
Share of renewable energy Percent | 25 | 78 to 93 | 97 to 98 | 100 | |
Share of unabated fossil fuel Percent | 69 | 4 to 16 | 0 to 1 | 0 |
Investments
Demand shifting towards the power sector
The 1.5°C compatible pathways analysed here tend to show a strong increase in power generation and installed capacities across time. This is because end-use sectors (such as transport, buildings or industry) are increasingly electrified under 1.5°C compatible pathways, shifting energy demand to the power sector. Globally, the “high energy demand” pathway entails a particularly high degree of renewable energy-based electrification across the various sectors, and sees a considerable increase in renewable energy capacities over time. See the power section for capacities deployment under the various models.
Argentinaʼs renewable electricity investments
Billion USD / yr
Yearly investment requirements in renewable energy
Across the set of 1.5°C pathways that we have analysed, annual investments in renewable energy excluding BECCS increase in Argentina to be on the order of USD 3 to 16 billion by 2030 and 7 to 27 billion by 2040 depending on the scenario considered. The ‘high energy demand, low CDR reliance’ pathway shows a particularly high increase in renewable capacity investments, which could be driven by an increase of electrification of end-use sectors and growing energy demand. Other modelled pathways have relatively lower investments in renewables and rely to varying degrees on other technologies and measures such as energy efficiency and negative emissions technologies, of which the latter can require high up-front investments.