The UK’s transport sector has been the country’s largest emitter since 2016, with emissions roughly in line with 1990 levels while emissions from most other sectors continue to decline. Despite the UK Government’s Ten Point Plan for achieving economy-wide emissions reductions having a strong focus on the transport sector, emission reductions projected to result from this plan are minor, at around 1 MtCO₂e per year.²⁷ This is despite implementing an ambitious 2030 ban on the sale of fossil fuel cars, a GPB 1 billion investment in electrification of UK vehicles and their supply chains, and an increase in funding for walking and cycling infrastructure as well as for expanded public transportation services. Cars account for 61% of surface transport emissions in the UK and 78% of vehicle kilometres travelled, meaning further measures and funding are crucial.

The UK governments justifies its GBP 27 billion investment in upgrading and expanding the country’s strategic road network by projections of strong demand growth for personal vehicle travel. Far greater investments to encourage modal shift could instead help to deliver the steep reduction in direct CO₂ emissions shown by the illustrative 1.5°C pathways of around a third below 2019 levels by 2030. Scenarios modelled by the UK’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) show that 7-16% of car travel could be avoided through modal shift by 2030, and 12-34% by 2050.

The future technology mix for low-carbon transport shows a wide variation including battery technology rapidly developing and renewable hydrogen expected to play a significant role. Investing in sufficient charging infrastructure to catalyse the transition to EVs will be crucial. Over the short term, however, making efficient mass transit and non-vehicle travel as cheap and convenient as possible can significantly reduce demand for personal vehicle travel and flying.

The UK government’s 2021 Transport Decarbonisation Plan targets a 2040 date for reaching net zero emissions from domestic aviation, with total aviation emissions to reach net zero by 2050.²⁸ The strategy does not include measures to reduce demand for flying, however.

¹ UK Government. UK becomes first major economy to pass net zero emissions law. (2019).

² UK Government. 2018 UK greenhouse gas emissions: final figures – data tables. (2020).

³ UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2020: Electricity. (2020).

⁴ UK Government. 2018 UK greenhouse gas emissions: final figures – data tables. (2020).

⁵ UK Government. Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2019: Annex J Total Electricity Generation by Source. (2020).

⁶ UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2020: Main Chapters and Annexes A to D dataset. (2020).

⁷ UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2013: Annex I (Energy Balance: Net Calorific Values). (2020).

⁸ UK Government. Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2019: Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by source. (2020).

⁹ UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2020: Main Chapters and Annexes A to D dataset. (2020).

¹⁰ UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2013: Annex I (Energy Balance: Net Calorific Values). (2020).

¹¹ UK Government. UK becomes first major economy to pass net zero emissions law. (2019).

¹² UK Committee on Climate Change. Letter: International aviation and shipping and net zero. (2019).

¹³ Department for Business Energy & Industrial Strategy. Energy Trends March 2021. (2021).

¹⁴ Edwardes-Evans, H. UK to open new CFD auction for onshore wind, solar projects. S&P Global Platts (2020).

¹⁵ National Grid ESO. Record-breaking 2020 becomes greenest year for Britain’s electricity. (2021).

¹⁶ UK Government. Energy and emissions projections: Net Zero Strategy baseline (partial interim update December 2021) Annex J: Total electricity generation by source. (2022).

¹⁷ UK Government. UK 2021 Common Reporting Format (CRF) Table. (2021).

¹⁸ UK National Audit Office. Green Homes Grant Voucher Scheme. (2021).

¹⁹ UK House of Commons. Energy efficiency: building towards net zero. (2019).

²⁰ UK National Audit Office. Low carbon heating of homes and businesses and the Renewable Heat Incentive. (2018).

²¹ Gabbatiss, J. In-depth Q&A: How will the UK’s ‘heat and buildings strategy’ help achieve net-zero? CarbonBrief, (2021).

²² UK Government. Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy. (2021).

²³ UK Government. UK Hydrogen Strategy (2021).

²⁴ S&P Global. Blue hydrogen stirs debate as chair of UK lobby group resigns over skepticism. (2021).

²⁵ Howarth, R. W. & Jacobson, M. Z. How green is blue hydrogen? Energy Science & Engineering ese3.956 (2021) doi:10.1002/ESE3.956.

²⁶ Climate Analytics. Why gas is the new coal. (2021).

²⁷ Department for Business Energy & Industrial Strategy. The Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution. 1–38 (2020).

²⁸ UK Government. Transport Decarbonisation Plan. (2021).

²⁹ While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

³⁰ In analysed global-least cost pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).