The UK has made considerable progress decarbonising its economy, with total GHG emissions in 2018 at 42% below 1990 levels.2 The bulk of these emissions reductions has come from the power (-62% since 1990) and industry sectors (-49%), whereas transport (-3%), agriculture (-16%), and buildings (-18%) have lagged behind.
The steep emissions reductions in the power sector have come primarily from a shift away from coal-fired power, which supplied just 2% of total generation in 2019.3 Between 2012 and 2019, coal generation fell by 95%. This has coincided with, and been enabled by, a steep increase in generation from renewable sources (+210%, 2012-2019).
Since 2016, transport emissions have constituted the largest share of the UK’s total GHG emissions (27.5% in 2018).2
1 UK Government. UK becomes first major economy to pass net zero emissions law. (2019).
2 UK Government. 2018 UK greenhouse gas emissions: final figures – data tables. (2020).
3 UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2020: Electricity. (2020).
4 UK Government. 2018 UK greenhouse gas emissions: final figures – data tables. (2020).
5 UK Government. Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2019: Annex J Total Electricity Generation by Source. (2020).
6 UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2020: Main Chapters and Annexes A to D dataset. (2020).
7 UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2013: Annex I (Energy Balance: Net Calorific Values). (2020).
8 UK Government. Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2019: Annex A Greenhouse gas emissions by source. (2020).
9 UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2020: Main Chapters and Annexes A to D dataset. (2020).
10 UK Government. Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2013: Annex I (Energy Balance: Net Calorific Values). (2020).
11 UK Government. UK becomes first major economy to pass net zero emissions law. (2019).
12 UK Committee on Climate Change. Letter: International aviation and shipping and net zero. (2019).
29 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.
30 In analysed global-least cost pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C, the energy sector assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
The United Kingdomʼs current GHG emissions
MtCO₂e/yr
Displayed values
By sector
Transport
Buildings
Power
Industry (energy use)
Fugitive emissions
Other
Agriculture
Industry (processes)
Waste
LULUCF
By gas
CO₂
CH₄
N₂O
Other
080%0
Sectors by gas
Energy
097%0
Agriculture
060%0
Industry (processes)
00
Energy system
The steady decline of coal-fired generation in the UK’s power sector has helped halve total emissions from this sector since 2008, and the country’s last coal plant is now scheduled for closure before October 1, 2024.22 While generation from natural gas is considerably lower now than ten years ago (-25%), it remains considerably higher than in 2013 (+38%), indicating it has also replaced coal-fired generation in recent years.5 Phasing out the UK’s considerable remaining natural gas power capacity is now the main hurdle for decarbonising the power sector, and policy changes in this direction would be beneficial for the necessary transformation.
The share of fossil fuels in the UK’s primary energy supply remains high, at 77% in 2019, though it is 13%-points lower than a decade ago.6,7 Over this time, the UK has become a net-importer of petroleum products despite its considerable oil production and refining industry. A continued and considerable reliance on natural gas has perpetuated high levels of imports. Transitioning away from natural gas in the power and buildings sectors, and oil in the transport sector, will not only contribute to the decarbonisation of the UK economy, but will also help the UK to achieve energy independence.
Targets and commitments
Economy-wide targets
Target type
Base year emissions target
NDC target
At least 68% below 1990 levels by 2030.
Market mechanism
The Climate Change Act allows for a limited use of carbon market units for each budget period. For the current third carbon budget (2018-2022), the limit on the use of carbon units is for the equivalent of 55 MtCO₂e.
Long-term target
Net zero GHG emissions by 2050 (incl. LULUCF).
Scotland: net zero GHG emissions by 2045.
Scotland: 75% below 1990 levels by 2030.
Wales: 95% reduction below 1990 levels by 2050.
Sector coverage
EnergyTransportIndustryWasteAgricultureLULUCF
Greenhouse gas coverage
CO₂CH₄NF₃HFCsN₂OSF₆
Sectoral targets
Power
Coal phase-out from the power sector by 2024.
40 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030.
LULUCF
30,000 hectares of trees planted per year by 2025.
Transport
Ban on sale of fossil fuel vehicles by 2030, 2035 for hybrids.
Vehicle emission standards: 95g CO₂/km for new passenger vehicles and 147g CO₂/km for vans starting from 2020.