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What is Turkeyʼs pathway to limit global warming to 1.5°C?

In brief

This is a summary of the most important findings of our analysis. Get a brief overview over the most important figures and entry points into the various parts of the in depth analysis.

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Ambition gap

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Turkeyʼs total GHG emissions

excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr

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Displayed values
Reference year
−100 %−50 %0 %50 %100 %20002020204020601234
  • 1.5°C compatible pathways
  • Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
  • Current policy projections
  • 1.5°C emissions range
  • Historical emissions
Legend
  1. 1
    1.5°C emissions level
    −41 %
  2. 2
    INDC
    +111 %
  3. 3
    Ambition gap
    −152 %
  4. 4
    Reference year
    2015
Key messages

Turkey is one of only a handful of countries that have still not ratified the Paris Agreement.

1 Climate Action Tracker. Turkey. CAT July 2020 Update. (2020).

2 Government of Turkey. On bi̇ri̇nci̇ kalkinma plani (2019-2023) (11th Development Plan (2019-2023). (2019).

3 Turkish Statistical Institute. Turkish Greenhouse gas inventory report 1990–2018. (2020).

4 Republic of Turkey Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources. Turkey Energy Strategy 2019-2023. (2019).

5 Global Energy Monitor. Global Coal Plant Tracker Database (July). Global Energy Monitor. (2020).

6 Climate Transparency. Turkey – Climate Transparency Report 2020. Climate Transparency Report. (2020).

7 Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization. Turkey’s Fourth Biennial Report. (2019).

8 While global cost-effective pathways assessed by the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C provide useful guidance for an upper-limit of emissions trajectories for developed countries, they underestimate the feasible space for such countries to reach net zero earlier. The current generation of models tend to depend strongly on land-use sinks outside of currently developed countries and include fossil fuel use well beyond the time at which these could be phased out, compared to what is understood from bottom-up approaches. The scientific teams which provide these global pathways constantly improve the technologies represented in their models – and novel CDR technologies are now being included in new studies focused on deep mitigation scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement. A wide assessment database of these new scenarios is not yet available; thus, we rely on available scenarios which focus particularly on BECCS as a net-negative emission technology. Accordingly, we do not yet consider land-sector emissions (LULUCF) and other CDR approaches which developed countries will need to implement in order to counterbalance their remaining emissions and reach net zero GHG are not considered here due to data availability.

9 LULUCF projections by 2030 are based on a ten-year average of the latest available historical LULUCF emissions from Turkey assessed by the Climate Action Tracker.

10 Least-cost pathways analysed here assumes already a certain amount of carbon dioxide removal technologies, in this case bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Its Intended NDC (INDC) targets a 21% reduction below a “business as usual” scenario (BAU). Turkey’s INDC is not Paris Agreement compatible, and emission projections to 2030 show it will overachieve its very weak 2030 target under current policies.1

Its current target allows for an increase in emissions of 111% above 2015 levels. However, emissions would need to be 41% lower than 2015 levels to put the country on a pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit.

Turkey currently has no long-term climate targets beyond 2030.

To align with a 1.5°C pathway, Turkey would need to reduce its GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, to at least 90% below 2015 levels by mid-century, which would lead to net zero GHG before 2050 if Turkey were to maintain its LULUCF sinks at its current level .8,9

Turkey would need to balance its remaining emissions to a level of around 67 MtCO2e/yr by 2050 through carbon dioxide removal approaches. With its current sink of around -94 MtCO2e/yr, Turkey is well positioned to avoid reliance on technological CDR methods.10

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Key messages

Turkey currently has a target for renewable energy to reach a 38.8% share of total electricity generation by 2023, which was surpassed in 2019. It has no targets beyond that.2

A 1.5°C compatible trajectory, would require a 76-86% renewables share in the power generation mix by 2030.

The Turkish government has plans to expand coal power generation. This is not in line with a 1.5°C compatible pathway, which requires a phase out of coal by around 2030.

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Key power sector benchmarks

Renewables shares and year of zero emissions power Including the use of BECCS

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Current targets
Required targets
2023
  1. 2023 39 % Renewable share
2030
  1. 2030 76 to 86% Renewable share
2038
  1. 2038-2039 Zero emissions power
2040
  1. 2040 99 to 100% Renewable share

Footnotes