Turkey is one of only a handful of countries that have still not ratified the Paris Agreement.
Its Intended NDC (INDC) targets a 21% reduction below a “business as usual” scenario (BAU). Turkey’s INDC is not Paris Agreement compatible, and emission projections to 2030 show it will overachieve its very weak 2030 target under current policies.
Its current target allows for an increase in emissions of 111% above 2015 levels. However, emissions would need to be 41% lower than 2015 levels to put the country on a pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit.
Turkey currently has no long-term climate targets beyond 2030.
To align with a 1.5°C pathway, Turkey would need to reduce its GHG emissions, excluding LULUCF, to at least 90% below 2015 levels by mid-century, which would lead to net zero GHG before 2050 if Turkey were to maintain its LULUCF sinks at its current level .,
Turkey would need to balance its remaining emissions to a level of around 67 MtCO₂e/yr by 2050 through carbon dioxide removal approaches. With its current sink of around -94 MtCO₂e/yr, Turkey is well positioned to avoid reliance on technological CDR methods.