1.5°C compatible pathways
The Gambia’s second NDC, submitted in September 2021, includes land use emissions. As land use accounted for over a third of the country’s emissions in 2017, including it in the NDC greatly expands covered emissions.2,5,14 However, the second NDC does not result in lower emissions than the first one due to the upward revision of the BAU scenario.2
The Gambia’s NDC target of 49.7% reduction below BAU including LULUCF in 2030 contains an unconditional component equal to a 2.6% reduction. The majority of the unconditional emissions reductions of the NDC target will be met through the land sector with a small contribution from renewable energy use. Excluding LULUCF, the conditional NDC target in 2030 would result in absolute emissions of 2.7 MtCO₂e/yr, or 8% below 2015 levels. The unconditional portion of the NDC would result in 5.5 MtCO₂e/yr, or 85% above 2015 levels. The Gambia’s NDC target is not aligned with a 1.5°C pathway.
The Gambia could achieve a 1.5°C compatible domestic emissions pathway if it received adequate international support. 1.5°C compatible pathways indicate that The Gambia’s domestic emissions reductions would need to be 25% below 2015 levels or 2.2 MtCO₂e/yr (excl. LULUCF) by 2030.
Long term pathway
The Gambia has a set a net zero target by 2050 included in its Long-term strategy released in September 2022.4,10
To be 1.5°C compatible, The Gambia’s GHG emissions (excl. LULUCF) need to fall to 40% below 2015 levels by 2050, equating to 1.8 MtCO₂e.
When excluding LULUCF, these emissions reductions will be mostly driven by efforts in the agriculture and energy sector. Even though The Gambia’s agriculture sector uses far less synthetic materials (e.g. fertilizers) than the rest of the sub-Saharan African countries, the growing population and declining yield makes it a difficult sector to decarbonise.7
1 Climate Action Tracker. The Gambia – Policies & action (6 Jul 2022 update). Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
2 The Republic of The Gambia. Second Nationally Determined Contribution of The Gambia. UNFCCC. 2021.
3 CAT. The ten most important short-term steps to limit warming to 1.5°C. 2016.
4 Republic of The Gambia. The Gambia’s long-term climate-neutral development strategy 2050. 2022.
5 Gütschow, J., Günther, A. & Pflüger, M. The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series v2.3 (1750-2019). (2021) doi:10.5281/zenodo.5175154.
6 Government of The Gambia (GOTG). Third National Communication of the Gambia under the UNFCCC. UNFCCC. 2020.
7 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Circular GHG mitigation opportunities inThe Gambia – A metabolic approach to defining a resource efficient and low-carbon future. 2021. assessment – undp-ndcsp-gambia-circular-GHG-mitigation-report %285%29%5B46%5D_0.pdf
8 IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). Energy Profile – Gambia. 2021.
9 Camara, I., Jallow, A., Jallow, B. & Swaby, G. Towards a low-carbon climate-resilient future. Developing The Gambia’s 2050 Climate Vision. 2021.
10 The Republic of The Gambia. The Gambia 2050 Climate Vision. 2021.
11 Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (MoPE). Strategic Plan 2021-2025. 2021.
12 Ritchie, H. & Roser, M. Gambia: Energy Country Profile. OurWorldInData.org 2020.
13 “Ministry of Petroleum and Energy (MoPE). Universal Access by 2025 and Transforming The Gambia Electricity Sub-sector: Strategic Roadmap 2021-2040. 2021.
14 Climate Action Tracker. The Gambia – Targets (6 Jul 2022 update). Climate Action Tracker. 2022.
15 News Desk. Gambia Adopts ECOWAS Approved Minimum Energy Performance Standards. News Ghana. 2022.
The Gambiaʼs total GHG emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂e/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Current policy projections
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Historical emissions
Energy system transformation
The Gambiaʼs total CO₂ emissions
excl. LULUCF MtCO₂/yr
- 1.5°C compatible pathways
- 1.5°C emissions range
- Middle of the 1.5°C compatible range
- Historical emissions
1.5°C compatible emissions benchmarks
Key emissions benchmarks of Paris compatible Pathways for The Gambia. The 1.5°C compatible range is based on the Paris Agreement compatible pathways from the IPCC SR1.5 filtered with sustainability criteria. The median (50th percentile) to 5th percentile and middle of the range are provided here. Relative reductions are provided based on the reference year.
Indicator | 2015 Reference year | 2019 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | Year of net zero incl. BECCS excl. LULUCF and novel CDR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total GHG Megatonnes CO₂ equivalent per year | 3 | 3 | 2 2 to 3 | 2 2 | 2 1 to 2 | |
Relative to reference year in % | −25% −39 to −15% | −36% −49 to −27% | −40% −59 to −33% | |||
Total CO₂ MtCO₂/yr | 1 | 1 | 1 0 to 1 | 0 0 | 0 0 | 2057 2046 to 2063 |
Relative to reference year in % | −7% −30 to −4% | −52% −85 to −36% | −80% −115 to −69% |